Air cargo rates are expected to soften in the near term following the recent ceasefire between the United States and Iran, but industry experts caution that a full market recovery will take time amid ongoing disruptions and uncertainty.
The temporary truce has eased some geopolitical tensions, leading to a decline in oil prices and offering relief to aviation fuel costs—one of the biggest drivers of air freight pricing. However, structural challenges continue to weigh on the market. During the conflict, air cargo rates surged as capacity tightened due to airspace restrictions, route diversions, and operational disruptions across the Middle East.
Despite the ceasefire, supply chains remain strained. Backlogs of shipments, disrupted flight schedules, and cautious carrier behaviour are delaying a return to normal operations. Analysts note that it could take several weeks—or even months—for cargo flows to stabilise, particularly as operators gradually reintroduce capacity and clear accumulated cargo.
Fuel markets also remain volatile. While crude prices initially dropped following the ceasefire, they are still elevated compared to pre-conflict levels, reflecting continued risks around key transit routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. This sustained cost pressure is likely to limit how quickly air cargo rates can decline.
Industry observers add that although the ceasefire improves operational conditions and may restore more efficient flight paths, pricing benefits for shippers will not be immediate. Airlines and logistics providers are expected to take a cautious approach, maintaining higher rates until stability is firmly established.
As a result, while the ceasefire signals the beginning of easing pressures in the air cargo market, a gradual and uneven recovery is anticipated in the months ahead.
