Black Sea grain exports plunge 26% year-on-year as attacks on ships and port infrastructure disrupt trade
Global grain shipments have declined by 8% year-on-year over the past five weeks, as escalating attacks in the Black Sea have severely disrupted grain exports from Russia and Ukraine, according to BIMCO.
The decline has been driven primarily by a 26% year-on-year drop in grain exports from the Black Sea, while weaker maize shipments from Brazil, linked to a delayed harvest, have further weighed on global grain volumes.
“Over the last five weeks (week 29-33) global grain shipments have fallen 8% y/y, fuelled by a 26% y/y drop in grain exports from the Black Sea as Russian and Ukrainian attacks on ships and port infrastructure have intensified,” said Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.
The escalation began on 6 July 2026, when Ukraine launched Operation MoLoChKa. The attacks initially focused on Russian-linked vessels in the Sea of Azov before expanding into the Black Sea, targeting both merchant ships and port infrastructure. Russia subsequently intensified attacks on Ukrainian ports and merchant vessels, prompting several shipowners to suspend calls at Ukrainian ports.
Black Sea plays a critical role in global grain trade
Although Black Sea ports account for only around 3% of global dry bulk seaborne exports, the region has a disproportionately important role in the grain trade, accounting for approximately 14% of global seaborne grain volumes.
Russia and Ukraine are among the world’s leading exporters of wheat and maize, supplying major markets across Africa, the Middle East, Europe and Asia. Prolonged disruption to shipments could therefore put further pressure on global food supply chains and prices.
A recent Ukrainian proposal to halt attacks on shipping in the Black Sea was rejected by Russia, reducing expectations of a rapid recovery in regional grain exports.
Alternative routes face capacity constraints
With Black Sea operations disrupted, Russia and Ukraine are increasingly looking for alternative routes to move their grain.
Russia has reportedly begun redirecting some cargoes towards overland routes and ports in the Caspian Sea, Baltic Sea and Far East. However, these alternatives face capacity limitations. Rail connections to the Far East, in particular, are already under pressure, with coal exports experiencing bottlenecks.
Ukraine is seeking to increase shipments through its Danube ports and Romanian ports, but these corridors also have limited capacity and cannot fully compensate for the volumes normally exported through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.
Ukraine faces growing storage pressure
The disruption is also creating a significant domestic storage challenge for Ukraine. According to Gouveia, restrictions on exports could lead to storage bottlenecks and increased spoilage risks as the country’s harvest progresses.
Ukraine’s Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food has estimated that the country could face a storage deficit of around 11 million tonnes by November, equivalent to approximately 13% of the expected grain and oilseed harvest this year.
The pressure is increasing as harvesting of wheat, barley and rapeseed continues, while harvesting of maize, sunflower seed and soybeans is expected to begin in the coming weeks.
“Ukraine’s export restrictions could create significant storage bottlenecks and increase the risk of spoilage,” Gouveia said.
With alternative export corridors unable to immediately replace Black Sea capacity, continued attacks could have wider implications for dry bulk shipping, freight rates, grain availability and global food security, particularly in import-dependent markets across Africa, the Middle East and Asia.