Global air freight rates ended a volatile week a little lower, according to the latest data from TAC Index, the market’s leading price reporting agency. In a week of on-off threats about tariffs on imports to the US – and potential retaliation from trading partners – the overall Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) calculated by TAC ended the week to 10 February down by -2.7%, leaving it still narrowly ahead by +1.8% over 12 months.
Market participants were watching closely for any impact on export business from China to the US, given the announced removal of the ‘de minimis’ exemption for smaller packages of under $800 (since suspended) – plus higher tariffs on goods from China. But in what is normally a quiet first week after Chinese New Year, it was hard to confirm any immediate major impact – with rates from China slightly down to the US but slightly up to Europe. The index of outbound routes from Hong Kong (BAI30) was lower -3.7% WoW but still slightly up +0.2% YoY. Outbound Shanghai (BAI80) fell more steeply by -8.4% WoW to leave it lower at -9.4% YoY. Rates were generally a little lower WoW out of Asia, including from Vietnam and from Bangkok as well as from India.
Out of Europe, patterns were more mixed – with rates up to the Middle East, unchanged overall to Japan, slightly lower to China, but down more to the US (after some recent rises – and still well up YoY). The index of outbound routes from Frankfurt (BAI20) gained a further +11.2% WoW, led by a big rebound on lanes to Asia following CNY, to put it ahead by some +31.0% YoY. Outbound London Heathrow (BAI40) by contrast fell back after recent increases, dropping -13.9% WoW – though is still ahead +8.8% YoY.
From the Americas, the index of outbound routes from Chicago (BAI50) also notched another chunky gain of +12.1% WoW, led by higher rates to Europe, leaving it ahead by +9.9% YoY. Overall rates from the US were rising both to China and to Europe – as well as to South America, led by higher rates from Miami, which is the biggest airport by volumes for cargo heading southbound.
