According to Xeneta, spot freight rates on major east-west trades are diverging sharply, with Transpacific rates falling amid excess capacity and North European rates rising due to congestion.
Spot rates from the Far East to the US West Coast fell 18 per cent from end-June to $2,673 per FEU by 8 July, dropping below levels seen in late May.
Carriers are deploying excess capacity, which may push rates to their lowest since the end of 2023.
Rates from the Far East to the US East Coast declined 27 per cent from their early June peak to $5,151 per FEU.
A delayed capacity response following temporary tariff relief kept rates elevated through June, but overcapacity in early July has caused a further 5 per cent drop since end-June.
Spot rates from the Far East to North Europe rose 18 per cent by 4 July compared to end-June, reaching $3,393 per FEU, driven largely by port congestion and carriers adjusting services to avoid bottlenecks.
Rates from the Far East to the Mediterranean declined 5 per cent since end-June to $4,197 per FEU, narrowing the rate gap between the Mediterranean and North Europe lanes to $804, down from $1,664 in June.
Rates from North Europe to the US East Coast dropped 5 per cent in early July to $1,992 per FEU, marking a 10-month low as the market awaits developments on potential EU–US trade agreements.
Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst, said: “Geopolitics has upset the natural order of ocean container shipping. Shippers need to act decisively to protect supply chains. Average spot rates into the US West Coast have fallen 51 per cent in just over a month.
“Rates into the US East Coast will likely fall to within $1000 of West Coast rates by the end of July. Severe congestion is spreading across North Europe ports – and the bad news is it’s here to stay for the remainder of 2025.”
In May, the unexpected 90-day tariff relief agreement between the US and China caught shipping lines by surprise, prompting a rapid reshuffling of Transpacific capacity ahead of the peak season.
