Global trade is on track to surpass $35 trillion in 2025 for the first time, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)’s final Global Trade Update of the year.
The latest figures show that trade continued to expand through the second half of the year, though momentum softened under pressure from geopolitical tensions, higher operating costs, and uneven global demand.
Growth held up between July and September, with global trade rising 2.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter. Goods increased nearly 2 per cent, while services posted a stronger 4 per cent gain.
UNCTAD expects growth to continue into Q4, but at a slower pace: 0.5 per cent for goods and 2 per cent for services.
If the forecast holds, goods trade would add roughly $1.5 trillion this year and services around $750 billion, aligning with a 7 per cent annual expansion.
A notable shift is emerging on pricing. After two quarters where rising goods prices partly inflated trade values, UNCTAD projects prices to fall in Q4.
That means the coming increase in global trade will come from higher shipment volumes rather than price inflation, signalling resilient underlying demand as inflationary pressures ease.
Regionally, East Asia delivered the strongest export performance of 2025 with 9 per cent growth, buoyed by a 10 per cent jump in intra-regional flows.
Africa also posted solid gains, with imports up 10 per cent and exports 6 per cent.
Broader South–South trade rose around 8 per cent, reflecting deepening economic ties among developing economies. China, the Republic of Korea, Brazil, South Africa, and India were among the key national drivers across goods and services.
By sector, global manufacturing grew 10 per cent, supported by robust demand for electronics — up 14 per cent — largely linked to AI-related hardware.
Agriculture strengthened in Q3, with cereals and fruit-and-vegetable exports each rising 11 per cent. In contrast, automotive trade fell 4 per cent, and fossil-fuel shipments declined in both value and price terms.
Trade patterns continued to reshape as friendshoring, nearshoring, and supply-chain concentration gained further traction through 2025.
These shifts, driven by geopolitical alignment and cost recalibration, are increasingly influencing the geography of global flows.
Despite this year’s recovery, UNCTAD warns that the outlook for 2026 is more cautious.
Slower global economic activity, rising debt burdens, and persistent uncertainty—combined with higher logistics and trade costs—are expected to temper trade growth in the year ahead.
In July, the container shipping sector entered a period of structural adjustment, as excess vessel capacity, declining freight rates, and shifting global trade routes reshaped commercial dynamics.
