Fresh attacks on Indian-flagged vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz have intensified concerns over the safety of maritime trade and the stability of India’s energy supply chain, while also casting a shadow on the broader bilateral dynamics between New Delhi and Tehran.
The Strait remains a critical artery for India’s crude imports, with an estimated 2.5–2.7 million barrels per day of oil from the Arabian Peninsula passing through the route prior to the ongoing West Asia crisis. However, escalating tensions have once again plunged the region into uncertainty, disrupting shipping movements and raising operational risks.
“It’s back to square one with so much unpredictability on passage of stranded ships in the Arabian Peninsula and unable to pass through Hormuz Strait. Every day, there is suspense in the region,” said an official from a major shipping line.
Industry experts warn that the attacks mark a significant setback for global shipping. Jagannarayan Padmanabhan, Senior Director and Global Head – Transport, Logistics and Mobility at CRISIL Ltd, noted that such incidents heighten concerns over cargo safety and crew security.
“Private companies are inherently risk-averse when it comes to geopolitical exposure. Businesses will now look to minimise exposure to high-risk corridors, even at higher costs, while reassessing routing and sourcing strategies,” he said.
Maritime experts also point to shifting security dynamics in the region. Capt. K Ramakrishnan observed that earlier safe passage for Indian vessels was largely underpinned by government-to-government understandings. However, recent developments suggest that such assurances may no longer be reliable.
“The IRGC is possibly taking an independent decision,” he said, referring to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Adding to concerns, UK-based maritime intelligence analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann described the situation as “volatile and distressing,” noting that at least 33 outbound vessels reversed course mid-transit when the strait briefly reopened before shutting again.
“The events of the past 24 hours are a major setback for global trade. Whatever nascent confidence existed among shipowners, insurers, and oil traders has evaporated,” she said.
The developments are expected to have far-reaching implications for global supply chains, insurance premiums, and freight costs, as stakeholders adopt a more cautious approach to transiting one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.