The imminent bilateral trade agreements (BTA) with the US is likely to reduce India’s goods trade surplus with that country, according to a research report by CRISIL.
During the financial year 2024-25, India’s trade surplus with the US stood at USD 41.18 billion, according to data of the Indian government.
The report said after completion of trade pact, India will be able to import more energy, certain agriculture products and defence equipment among others.
Although the US is India’s largest export partner, there is scope to increase exports further in areas like smartphones, pharmaceutical products and labour-intensive exports such as textiles, gems and jewellery, the report said.
The US announced reciprocal tariffs on India and a host of other nations in April 2025, and then paused the increase for 90 days from April 10 to negotiate trade deals with these countries.
As India negotiates a trade deal with the US in the form of BTA, the first tranche is expected to be completed by September this year.
The report said that India should be prepared to see more imports from the US under BTA. This is because India’s tariffs are much higher than the US and bringing these down would benefit the exporters in the US.
India’s exports, however, are unlikely to see a major spike because the focus of the US administration is to reduce the trade deficit with India and most of the top exports are already duty-free.
The US is not only the world’s largest economy, but also the world’s largest importer, according to the report.
