Volatility in vessel capacity on the Asia–North America West Coast (NAWC) trade has reached unprecedented levels, signalling a fundamental shift in the trade lane’s supply-demand dynamics.
Sea-Intelligence reports sustained volatility in weekly vessel capacity on the Asia–NAWC trade, driven by blank sailings, off-schedule departures, and inconsistent vessel sizes.
Using a 52-week moving average of absolute weekly changes, the analysis finds that capacity volatility has been consistently 250–300 per cent higher than 2012 levels over the past three years. Even when adjusted as a percentage of total capacity, the trend remains.
Further analysis shows that this volatility is not limited to isolated events. Increases are observed across both the 25th and 75th percentiles of weekly changes, indicating that even traditionally stable periods have become more unpredictable.
Sea-Intelligence concludes that this persistent volatility has undermined the stability of the weekly supply-demand balance, resulting in greater unpredictability in spot rate formation on the Asia–NAWC corridor.
Last month, Sea-Intelligence ranked the world’s top 202 deep-sea ports by schedule reliability, highlighting which ports are best at keeping vessels on time amid increasing operational pressures.