India’s port sector is entering a new phase of growth, with container cargo expected to emerge as the strongest growth driver over the next three years, while coal traffic is likely to decline and petroleum products and iron ore are projected to register moderate gains, according to a research report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
The brokerage projects container volumes to grow at a 7-9% CAGR during FY26-FY28, supported by favourable macroeconomic conditions, rising domestic consumption, increasing exports, and the continued shift towards containerisation.
“Container traffic is expected to remain a key growth driver for Indian ports, supported by favourable macroeconomic conditions, rising domestic consumption, and greater adoption of containerisation, with volumes projected to expand at a 7-9 per cent CAGR over FY26-FY28,” the report stated.
Private Ports to Outperform
While the overall Indian port industry is expected to grow at 4-5% annually over the medium term, Motilal Oswal believes leading private port operators are well-positioned to significantly outperform the industry.
“Both Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) and JSW Infrastructure (JSWINFRA) are set for sustained growth of 2-3 times the industry, supported by continued organic and inorganic expansions and integrated logistics solutions,” the brokerage noted.
Strong Policy Support
The report highlighted that government initiatives continue to provide a strong growth catalyst for the maritime sector.
Under the National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) 2.0, the Government has identified 44 brownfield port infrastructure projects, including terminals, berths and jetties, for monetisation through Public-Private Partnership (PPP) models, aiming to unlock investments worth ₹1.2 trillion during FY26-FY30.
In the longer term, the Maritime Amrit Kaal Vision 2047 aims to develop six mega ports with world-class infrastructure and increase India’s total port handling capacity from the current 2,800 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) to 10,000 MTPA by 2047.
Major Ports Outpace Non-Major Ports
According to the report, India’s major ports recorded strong performance during FY26, handling 915 million metric tonnes (MMT) of cargo, representing approximately 7% year-on-year growth.
The increase was driven by healthy expansion in both overseas cargo (+6.6%) and coastal cargo (+8%), with petroleum, oil and lubricants (POL) and crude oil leading the growth at 16% year-on-year, followed by strong gains in coal and container traffic.
In comparison, non-major ports registered relatively modest growth, with cargo volumes increasing by around 1.4% year-on-year to 753 MMT.
Commodity Mix Undergoing Structural Shift
Motilal Oswal expects India’s cargo mix to undergo a gradual transformation over the coming years.
Coal traffic is projected to register a 2-4% compounded decline, driven by higher domestic coal production and the growing adoption of renewable energy.
Iron ore cargo is expected to recover with a 5-7% CAGR during FY26-FY28, supported by increased coastal movement, while POL traffic is forecast to grow at a moderate 2-4% CAGR, reflecting stable fuel demand offset by improvements in fuel efficiency.
Strategic Maritime Advantage
The brokerage also highlighted India’s strategic geographical location as a major competitive advantage.
With 20,275 km of national waterways spread across 24 states, India is strategically positioned along major global shipping routes in the Indian Ocean, through which nearly 80% of global maritime oil trade passes.
This geographical advantage, combined with ongoing infrastructure investments, strengthens India’s ambition of becoming a leading global maritime and logistics hub.
Positive Outlook for APSEZ and JSW Infrastructure
Motilal Oswal remains optimistic about the growth prospects of India’s leading private port operators.
For Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ), the brokerage forecasts revenue growth of 17% CAGR, EBITDA growth of 18% CAGR, and profit after tax (PAT) growth of 22% CAGR between FY26 and FY28.
For JSW Infrastructure, it expects cargo volumes to grow at 19% CAGR, while revenue, EBITDA and adjusted PAT (APAT) are projected to increase at 39%, 34% and 31% CAGR, respectively, during the same period.
Risks Remain
Despite the strong long-term outlook, the report cautioned that the sector continues to face several challenges, including geopolitical uncertainties, volatility in global trade, increasing competition from private and regional ports, and policy and regulatory risks.
Nevertheless, Motilal Oswal believes India’s ongoing infrastructure investments, supportive policy framework and favourable trade dynamics position the country to emerge as a global maritime hub over the coming decades.
