India’s crude import patterns are undergoing a significant shift as the country diversifies away from Russian barrels under pressure from the US. Petroleum crude imports from Russia dropped sharply by 28.93 per cent, from $4,675 million in September 2024 to $3,322 million in September 2025. This decline follows the additional 25 per cent tariff imposed by the US on purchases of Russian oil, which came into effect on 27th August 2025.
Analysis of data from the Ministry of Commerce for September 2025 shows that India’s total crude imports fell by 6.66 per cent year-on-year, from $11,476 million in September 2024 to $10,712 million this year. Besides Russia, imports from Iraq also declined 16 per cent.
But India appears to be actively exploring imports from other countries to bridge the gap left by Russia. While purchases from Saudi Arabia (2.24 per cent), UAE (28.93 per cent), the United States (10.56 per cent), Angola (73.04 per cent), and Colombia (58.6 per cent) increased, it has added many new sources to its list.
New suppliers, including Nigeria, Turkey, Libya, and Egypt, appeared on the crude oil import list in September 2025.
Changing market shares
Russia’s dominance in India’s oil imports fell below one-third for the first time in nearly two years. Russia’s share in total crude oil imports fell by 9.72 percentage points, from 40.74 per cent in September 2024 to 31.02 per cent in September 2025.
The Gulf trio — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait — collectively increased their share from 26.6 per cent to 31.3 per cent. The US and African exporters together account for over 10 per cent, signalling a strategic broadening of supply lines. Canada’s share collapsed from 1.39 per cent to zero, as imports stopped entirely.
Costlier imports
India’s diversification drive is coming at a price. While Russian barrels were available around $500 per ton in September 2025, substitutes from the Middle East, Africa, and the US are significantly costlier, such as the UAE at $543, Saudi Arabia at $560, the US at $549, and Libya at $602 per ton. Even with a smaller overall import volume, this upward shift in unit costs could pressure India’s refinery margins, trade deficit, and retail fuel inflation.
With total imports contracting and cheaper sources shrinking, India’s balancing act between economic pragmatism and strategic alignment appears to be tightening. The data underline a crucial trade-off: less dependence on sanctioned oil, but higher import costs and reduced pricing flexibility.
