India’s exports to the United States rebounded sharply in November after two consecutive months of decline, aided by supply-chain realignments and pre-holiday inventory restocking, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
Exports to the US rose 22.61 per cent month-on-month to $6.98 billion in November, reversing the downturn seen between May and September. The recovery came despite the US imposing 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods from August. GTRI said the earlier slump was largely driven by uncertainty over the impending tariff hikes, prompting US buyers to delay orders and rely on existing inventories.
Sector-wise data showed a broad-based recovery. Smartphone exports, India’s largest export category to the US, fell sharply from $2.29 billion in May to $884.6 million in September, before rebounding to $1.8 billion in November. Gems and jewellery exports also staged a recovery, rising to $406.2 million in November after dropping to $202.8 million in September, from $500.2 million in May.
Machinery and mechanical appliances exports, which had declined to $516.8 million in September, nearly returned to peak levels at $614.6 million in November. Pharmaceutical exports climbed to $669.2 million during the month, though they remained below May levels. Exports of mineral fuels and oils—exempt from the higher tariffs—slipped from $291.5 million in May to $251.5 million in September before recovering to $274.3 million in November.
GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said that once the higher tariffs became certain, exporters and US buyers began adjusting by absorbing part of the cost increases, renegotiating prices, and shifting towards products that are less affected by tariffs or difficult to substitute.
However, GTRI cautioned that the rebound may prove temporary. The think tank noted that the recovery reflects short-term adjustments to a more restrictive trade regime rather than a sustained improvement, with businesses relying on interim strategies to navigate a tougher US trade environment.