Exports to the US, India’s biggest export destination, was up by 9.75 per cent year-on-year during the nine months of FY26 (April-December 2025), despite the 50 per cent US tariffs, latest merchandise trade data released by the Ministry of Commerce show.
A market analysis of India’s total merchandise trade shows that during April-December 2025 exports stood at $330 billion, up from $322 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year, a y-o-y growth of 2.44 per cent. This growth is led by electronic goods, up by $9.16 billion, followed by engineering goods, up by $3.38 billion.
China’s Comeback
A closer look at India’s top export destinations shows that the US retained its position as India’s largest export market with shipments rising from $60 billion in April-December 2024 to $65.9 billion in April-December 2025, marking a 9.75 per cent increase.
This growth is likely a result of robust exports of non-tariffed merchandise such as engineering goods, electronic goods and pharmaceuticals, which rose 3.88 per cent, 35 per cent and 6.4 per cent respectively on an overall basis.
However, the UK with which India has a ‘Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement’ (CETA) and has sealed an FTA recently, saw a fall in exports from India of about 7 per cent, from $10.8 billion to $10 billion, y-o-y in April-December 2025.
The most striking shift, however, came from China, where Indian exports jumped from $10.4 billion in April-December 2024 to $14.2 billion in April-December 2025, a sharp 36.7 per cent y-o-y rise. This surge helped China climb from fifth to third place among India’s export destinations.
As Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal puts it, “India’s export growth to China was not due to any particular strategy. The overall recalibration of supply chains in the world is helping India in increasing its exports to China.”
Marine and Petroleum Exports in Focus
Interestingly, marine products, which are tariffed by US, saw an exports growth of 15.5 per cent y-o-y to $6.56 billion in April-December 2025, across all geographies. This signals market diversification and resilience of Indian marine exporters amidst global chaos.
Petroleum products, meanwhile, recorded a 14.5 per cent fall in export value over the April-December period, y-o-y, from $49.3 billion in 2024 to $42.1 billion in 2025. According to the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), lower global crude prices caused the value of petroleum product exports to decline. “Despite stable export volumes the reduced pricing environment significantly impacted export earnings,” PPAC said.
