Ship capacity in deadweight tonnes transiting through the Panama Canal between September 2024 and January 2025 was 10 percent lower than the 2019-22 average, according to the latest update from BIMCO.
“Although there were no transit restrictions during this period, transits of dry bulk, LNG and, to a lesser extent, tanker ships have not recovered to their historical levels,” says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager, BIMCO.
Transits through the Panama Canal were restricted between June 2023 and September 2024 due to low water levels in the Gatun Lake. “There were restrictions to both the total number of transits and ship drafts, and ships competed for limited transit slots. Sectors such as the container sector typically operate on fixed schedules which allow them to book the transit slots ahead of other ships. Non-bookable transit slots were also auctioned, usually favouring the highest bidder and thereby offering an advantage to some sectors,” the update added.
Gouveia says: “Transit fees, changes in trade patterns and the establishment of a new normal could all be keeping ships from fully returning to the canal. Furthermore, for the sectors which haven’t fully returned, this has resulted in increased tonne-mile demand as sailing distances have increased. Instead of transiting through the canal, ships sail around the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn.
“Although a return to the canal has been slow for some sectors, we still expect ship capacity transiting the waterway to increase. Transits of container, LPG and car carriers are already above historical levels and could continue growing. However, the medium-term outlook for the dry bulk sector looks cloudier amid strong competition for grains shipments between the U.S. and Brazil and a poor demand outlook for coal.”
Trump and Panama Canal
U.S. President Donald Trump has accused Panama of giving away the control of the canal to Chinese interests and has spoken about taking it back from Panama.
The U.S. State Department, in a post on X, claimed U.S. government vessels can now transit the Panama Canal without charge fees, saving the U.S. government millions of dollars a year.
Panama Canal Authority, however, denied the claims on X, saying it has not made any adjustments to them. “The Panama Canal Authority is fully prepared to engage in dialogue regarding the transit of U.S. warships.”