US import tariffs and the introduction of the de minimis rule are beginning to reshape air cargo flows, particularly affecting the India-to-U.S. trade lane, according to freight analytics platform Xeneta. Data from September showed India-U.S. air freight volumes down 10% year-on-year, with a dynamic load factor of 65%.
Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van de Wouw, described the market as “feast or famine,” highlighting the rapid swing from booming volumes during Red Sea threats last year to today’s slowdown due to tariffs.
TIACA Director General Glyn Hughes noted a shift in trade strategy from “China +1” to “U.S. +1,” driven by tariff pressures. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s response to the U.S. tariffs signaled a commitment to explore alternative markets, encouraging diversification in consumer markets.
Hughes highlighted growing caution among shippers due to tariff volatility, warning that sudden duties of 25–50% could make U.S.-bound shipments uneconomic. Companies are increasingly looking at emerging economies to spread consumption risks.
Despite high U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, averaging 57.6%, Asia Pacific–North America air freight load factors remained strong at 87% in September. Airlines have quickly adjusted capacity, redirecting U.S.-bound space to Europe to accommodate e-commerce giants like Shein and Temu, resulting in dramatic growth in European volumes.
Hughes praised the sector’s adaptability, noting that spot rates remained stable despite a 50% volume drop to the U.S. and near doubling of shipments to Europe. The industry’s capacity shifts have successfully matched the evolving e-commerce demand.