India’s rice inventories in government warehouses rose nearly 12% year-on-year to a record level in early December, following aggressive procurement of the new-season paddy crop by state-run agencies, according to official data.
Total state reserves of rice, including unmilled paddy, stood at an all-time high of 57.57 million metric tons as of December 1—far exceeding the government’s buffer norm of 7.61 million tons required for January 1. Wheat stocks were also ample at 29.14 million tons, sharply higher than 20.6 million tons a year earlier.
The surge in stockpiles is expected to give the world’s largest rice exporter greater room to increase shipments, potentially putting pressure on supplies from rival exporters such as Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan.
State agencies have been compelled to step up purchases from farmers as open-market prices have remained below the government’s minimum support price (MSP). Since the start of the marketing year on October 1, government procurement has reached 42.2 million tons of paddy.
“Despite heavy government buying, traders still hold sufficient stocks for exports,” said a New Delhi–based dealer with a global trading house.
Although export demand remains moderate, a weakening rupee is supporting overseas sales by making Indian rice more competitive. The Indian rupee fell to a record low this month, improving export realizations for traders.
India, which accounts for around 40% of global rice exports, lifted the last of its export curbs on rice in March. As a result, rice exports in the first 10 months of 2025 surged 37% year-on-year to 18.49 million tons. The Rice Exporters Association expects shipments to climb nearly 25% this year to a record 22.5 million tons.
Comfortable wheat stocks alongside robust rice reserves are also helping the government better manage domestic foodgrain prices, traders said.
