Despite “loss-making” airfreight rates offered for Hong Kong/China-US, Chinese forwarders seem optimistic that the trade war with the US will ease.
One forwarder said he’d been offered a co-loading rate from Hong Kong to the US west coast of $3.50 per kg, including FSC and security, and $3.90 to the east coast.
“Highly volumetric” cargo rates on the spot market could be $2.50 to $2 per kg, he added. ”It’s definitely a loss-maker. It’s common for BSA-contracted forwarders to be dropping 50 cents to $1.50/kg, and if you’ve got volumetric, there’s room for negotiations.”
The forwarder added that the situation was worse at other airports, where few mobile phones – exempt from tariffs – are shipped.
One Shanghai-based forwarder said the market to the US west coast was “cooler than to the east”.
“Air freight export ex-China to the US, as you can imagine, has been severely affected in terms of volumes. However, lots of capacity has withdrawn from the market, so rates have not reduced as much as we expected, especially to the east coast.
“The market to the west coast seems to be cooler than to the east, which I think it is due to more consumer cargo or ecommerce going to the west, and more industrial products to the east. From what we see, there is still industrial product cargo moving from CN to US, but with lower quantities.”
However, a Shanghai-based ecommerce forwarder said the tail-off in de minimis volumes had not been as drastic as expected.
“The China-US tariff war is not impacting ecommerce platforms as severely as expected. A lot of those cheap products from these platforms are still the cheapest around, even with the tariff. For now, customers are still buying low-cost products from China. However, for higher-end, more expensive goods, the drop in volume is high.”
She noted that a $10 product had only gone up to $14.50, and “at this price, most Chinese-made products remain competitive. The drop in volume isn’t too significant at the moment, especially for necessities”.
But she added: “For a $100 product, the price is $145, a price point where volumes decrease dramatically. And a $1,000 product, now $1,450, which means there is likely no trade.”
She said the producers and consumers of the higher-priced goods would look for cheaper alternatives.
The non-ecommerce forwarder added: “Of course, every exporter to the US market must have tried to find alternative markets, but the tariff war happened only for a few weeks, so it would be too early for us to see something big in the market as the situation is still evolving. We don’t expect the China-US talks in Switzerland to conclude with some ‘big deal’ though. However, most likely the situation won’t be worse than it is now – at the bottom.”
Speculation is rife that US-China trade talks will result in tariffs of 50% to 55%, following comments from US treasury secretary Scott Bessent that the current 145% tariff levels were unsustainable.
Meanwhile, official data from WorldACD today shows tonnages from Asia Pacific, specifically China to the US have declined steeply, in part because of the ending of de minimis and addition of tariffs, and partly because of Labour Day holidays.
In the week to 4 May, said WorldACD, “cargo from Asia Pacific origins recorded by far the biggest WoW decrease of 11%, with Central & South America (CSA) origin cargo recording a 3% drop, after spiking in recent weeks due to high Mother’s Day flower shipment volumes. Cargo from Africa, and from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) was flat, WoW, with a small increase from North America (+1%), and a 7% rise from Europe origins, related to post-Easter recovery.”
Worldwide rates, based on contract and spot, have stayed broadly flat for three weeks. It added that “average weekly spot rates from China to the US have been somewhat volatile in the last two months, ranging between $3.34 and $4.99 per kg”.
“They fell in week 18, WoW, for the fourth consecutive week, dropping a further 9% to $3.85 per kg. But to Europe, spot rates from China have been more stable in the last two months, ranging between $3.87 and $4.29 per kg, dipping 4% in week 18, to $3.97 per kg.”
Research analyst Judah Levine from Freightos explained: “As ecommerce shipments from platforms like Temu and Shein travelled largely in chartered freighters, as charter and other capacity is being removed from this lane, and as spot demand from other sectors – like many electronics exempt from tariffs for now – may still be relatively strong, spot rates have yet to collapse.”
