Global ship demand growth is set to accelerate in 2025, even as freight markets face mounting challenges, according to BIMCO’s latest market outlook.
“We have increased our ship demand growth forecast for 2025 to 4.5–5.5% on the strength of demand in trade lanes not bound for the US, while maintaining the 2026 forecast at 2.5–3.5%,” said Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO. He noted that market conditions in 2025 are expected to be weaker than in 2024, before stabilising in 2026 as supply and demand align.
The outlook comes as US tariffs, first unveiled on “Liberation Day,” have now been fully implemented across most categories, dampening import volumes into North America. The region has seen negative year-on-year growth since April, with imports forecast to contract 2% in 2025 before returning to growth in 2026.
By contrast, cargo volumes into most other regions have proven resilient. Global volumes are expected to expand by 2.5–3.5% annually in both 2025 and 2026, driven largely by strong Asian exports to Sub-Saharan Africa, South and Central America, and Europe and the Mediterranean.
Rasmussen cautioned, however, that demand figures remain inflated due to ongoing reroutings around the Cape of Good Hope, as Red Sea disruptions persist. Suez Canal transits are still down 90% from pre-crisis levels. Should conditions normalise, ship demand could fall 10% below current projections.
On the supply side, BIMCO has raised its growth estimate to 7.3% for 2025, citing slow recycling activity and higher sailing speeds, while cutting its 2026 estimate to 3.1%.
“We expect that market conditions and freight rates could weaken further during the rest of 2025,” Rasmussen said. “Time charter rates and second-hand ship prices have so far remained resilient despite lower freight rates, but we expect that could change from the fourth quarter. Looking ahead, with balanced supply/demand growth, freight rates could stabilise in 2026.”
