Global air cargo demand increased 6% year on year in August 2026, extending the market’s strong performance through the traditionally quieter summer period, according to logistics data provider Xeneta. Demand growth accelerated from the 5% increase recorded in July.
Despite the continued growth in volumes, freight rates remained elevated. Global air cargo spot rates averaged $3.13 per kg in August, up 24% year on year, although they declined 3% from July. The annual rate increase has now slowed for a third consecutive month, from 41% in May to 38% in June and 28% in July.
Capacity Remains Tight
Global air cargo capacity was flat year on year in August, meaning demand continued to grow faster than available capacity. Xeneta’s dynamic load factor rose three percentage points from a year earlier to 61%, indicating relatively firm utilisation across the market.
Xeneta said shippers are increasingly purchasing capacity on the short-term market while waiting for rates to decline further. However, rising jet-fuel prices and continued demand growth are limiting the pace of rate reductions.
China-Europe E-Commerce Volumes Weaken
One of the major changes in the market has been the slowdown in China-origin e-commerce cargo. China’s low-value and e-commerce exports fell 11% year on year in July, with shipments to Europe dropping 25%.
The decline followed the European Union’s removal of the €150 duty-free threshold for low-value goods from July 1 and the introduction of a flat €3 customs duty per item. Xeneta expects the impact to be potentially temporary, pointing to the recovery in China-US e-commerce shipments after the United States removed its de minimis threshold.
Regional Markets Show Diverging Trends
Air cargo markets continued to show significant differences by trade lane. China-to-Western Europe spot rates averaged $3.85 per kg in August, down 6% month on month, while Northeast Asia-Europe rates also declined.
In contrast, technology-related shipments continued to support transpacific demand. Northeast Asia-North America spot rates averaged $5.76 per kg in August, up 2% from July. Middle East-linked routes also remained significantly above pre-conflict levels.
Outlook Remains Resilient
Xeneta expects the global air cargo market to grow by around 4% in 2026, above forecasts made at the end of 2025. The company said the market has remained relatively stable despite geopolitical uncertainty, tariff changes and fluctuations in freight rates.
The August performance indicates that air cargo demand continues to demonstrate resilience, although shippers are likely to remain under pressure from freight rates that are still substantially higher than last year’s levels.