Despite fresh global trade shocks and a steep 50 per cent US duty on Indian goods, India’s exports have demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2025, according to reports. Exporters adapted quickly by diversifying markets, ensuring that trade momentum remained intact even amid disruptions.
A senior commerce ministry official summed up India’s adaptability: “Trade behaves like water, it finds its way,” PTI reported. This flexibility has guided India’s export journey through multiple disruptions over the past five years, from the COVID-19 pandemic to geopolitical tensions and supply-chain crises.
India’s merchandise exports have shown a steady recovery following global slowdowns. Exports rose from USD 276.5 billion in 2020 to USD 395.5 billion in 2021 and USD 453.3 billion in 2022. While 2023 saw a dip to USD 389.5 billion due to a global slowdown, shipments rebounded to USD 443 billion in 2024. Between January and November 2025, exports reached USD 407 billion, reflecting continued demand despite tariff pressures.
Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal highlighted the record combined exports of goods and services, which reached USD 825.25 billion in 2024–25, marking over 6 per cent year-on-year growth. He added that exports during April–November 2025 touched USD 562 billion and that India is well positioned for further growth in 2026, aided by upcoming free trade agreements (FTAs) with the UK, Oman, and New Zealand.
US Tariffs Bite, But Recovery Follows
Exports to the US, India’s largest export destination, were temporarily affected by higher tariffs imposed from August 2025. However, shipments rebounded sharply in November, rising 22.61 per cent to USD 6.98 billion, signaling exporters’ ability to adjust pricing and supply chains. Authorities remain hopeful for an early bilateral trade agreement with the US and progress on EU trade negotiations.
Global Trade Outlook Turns Cautious
The World Trade Organization (WTO) projected global trade growth of 2.4 per cent in 2025 but lowered its outlook for 2026 to 0.5 per cent. The WTO warned that higher tariffs, policy uncertainty, and slowing GDP growth in developed economies could weigh on trade and manufacturing.
Government Support Strengthens Export Resilience
The government has implemented measures to support exporters, including a Rs 25,060 crore export promotion mission, collateral-free credit of up to Rs 20,000 crore, debt repayment moratoriums, longer export credit tenors, and greater use of FTAs. Recent trade agreements with Mauritius, Australia, UAE, EFTA, Oman, the UK, and New Zealand have expanded market access for Indian goods and services.
Diversification Drives Growth Outlook for 2026
Experts cited by PTI noted that India’s export growth is being driven by structural shifts rather than short-term global recovery. Electronics have emerged as a key growth driver, alongside engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles. Exports are increasingly diversifying geographically, moving beyond traditional markets like the US and UAE to Europe, East Asia, and South Asia.
Ajay Sahai, Director General of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, said that global supply-chain realignments, expanding trade partnerships, and improved ease of doing business put Indian exporters in a strong position. Nevertheless, he cautioned that geopolitical risks, slower growth in developed markets, rising protectionism, currency volatility, and higher logistics costs could pressure margins, particularly for MSMEs.
Outlook Remains Positive
With continued government support and market diversification, India’s export sector is expected to maintain growth momentum through 2026, showcasing resilience amid global challenges, media reported.
