Suez Canal traffic remains deeply depressed more than 100 days after the last reported Houthi attack on commercial shipping, underscoring the shipping industry’s continued caution in returning to the Red Sea route.
“On 29 September, the Minervagracht became the last vessel to be attacked by the Houthis, at least for now. Forty-three days later, the Houthis declared an end to their attacks. Despite this, traffic through the Suez Canal has not increased significantly and, in the first week of 2026, remained 60% below the corresponding week in 2023, before ships started diverting around the Cape of Good Hope,” said Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
According to Lloyd’s List, the Houthis have attacked or hijacked vessels 99 times since November 2023. While 15 ships were targeted during November and December 2023, Suez Canal transits only began to decline sharply from January 2024. Since then, quarterly deadweight tonnage (DWT) transiting the canal has remained 51–64% lower than in 2023.
“During 2025, Suez Canal DWT transits were 57–64% lower than in 2023. In the fourth quarter, transits by bulk carriers, container ships, crude tankers and product tankers were respectively 55%, 86%, 32% and 19% lower than 2023 levels,” Rasmussen noted.
For most shipping segments, the reduction in Suez Canal traffic has remained broadly stable throughout 2025. Product tankers, however, have increasingly returned to the route, taking advantage of higher freight rate premiums. As a result, product tanker transits in the fourth quarter of 2025 were only 19% lower than in 2023, compared with a 45% reduction during 2024.
Container shipping continues to be the most affected sector, with nearly all container vessels avoiding the canal since the attacks began. However, there are early signs of a gradual return. CMA CGM has announced that its MEDEX and INDAMEX services will resume Suez Canal transits from January 2026.
In another notable development, the Maersk Sebarok transited the canal on 19 December 2025, becoming the first Maersk vessel to do so since early 2024. While Maersk has not confirmed further transits, the company stated that “assuming that security thresholds continue to be met, we are considering continuing our stepwise approach towards gradually resuming navigation along the East-West corridor via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea.”
The easing of Red Sea war risk premiums may further support a cautious return. In early December, S&P Global reported that premiums had fallen to 0.2% of hull values—the lowest level since November 2023—down from around 0.5% prior to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire.
“A normalisation of ship transits now appears more likely than at any point during the past two years, but it remains uncertain if, or how quickly, this will happen,” Rasmussen said. “While a return to the Suez Canal would significantly reduce costs for shipping companies, it would also lower ship demand. Full normalisation could reduce container ship demand by around 10%, while other sectors may see reductions of 2–3%.”
Despite improving security indicators, the pace of recovery will ultimately depend on sustained stability in the Red Sea and continued confidence among shipowners and operators.
