Global airfreight rates and volumes are rising gently – but confusion over US ecommerce rules and tariffs mean the data remains hard to read.
According to Rotate, there are 12 fewer daily freighter flights on the transpacific than pre-Chinese New Year, a 15% drop, or 24 aircraft. And charter carriers have cut the most flights, a reduction of 25%.
As Tim van Leeuwen, head of consulting, noted: “If only this episode could have happened outside Chinese New Year and the flower season, that would have made our collective analyses easier.”
WorldACD said today global tonnages were up 3%, again, week on week, following a 13% drop over Chinese New Year, a “relatively shallow” dip, it called this.
“The overall increasing trend of ecommerce demand since last year might have contributed to this dynamic, but the trends and underlying factors for air cargo tonnages from China and Hong Kong are rather complex this year and remain difficult to interpret, especially until we are well clear of the effects of lunar new year and recent US de minimis rule changes and reversals.”
It said: “There is no real evidence, in data terms, of a significant level of front-loading activity in anticipation of the expected tariffs in the US on China-origin air cargo – nor of the confusion caused by US de minimis rules for China leading to unexpectedly low volumes of China/HK-origin cargo to the US. But it is also possible that those factors may have cancelled each other out, to some extent.”
Nevertheless, spot rates from China to the US fell 6% week on week, dropping to $3.74 per kg, according to WorldACD, while to Europe they regained 10%, to $4.34 per kg. But it appears markets are shifting: Asian Pacific to the US gained 4%, with Japan and S Korea to the US up 28% and 13% respectively.
Freightos reported earlier in the week that China to N America weekly prices had fallen 7%, to $4.92/kg, while China-N Europe weekly prices fell 13%, to $3.14/kg. It said China to US rates – while not collapsed – had fallen below $5 per kg for the first time since August, and were 7% lower than a week earlier, when they would normally have risen after Chinese New Year.
Meanwhile, it appears that Chinese ecommerce platforms are working hard to set up new tradelanes.
Shein is reportedly encouraging sellers to set up production in Vietnam, while Temu is trying to store more inventory in the US, according to The Wall St Journal, with about one-third of its stock now in the US.
“This trend may suggest that air rates could decline gradually until de minimis is cancelled, and then more sharply once the change goes into effect,” added Freightos.
