The year got off to a good start for liners Hapag-Lloyd and Ocean Network Express (ONE), but they believe it could be downhill from here.
In its Q1 25 earnings statement, Hapag-Lloyd revealed an operating result “significantly up, compared with Q1 24”, reporting a 17% increase in ebitda, to $1.1bn, and ebit up 24%, to $500m.
The German carrier attributed the main drivers to be strong demand, which resulted in a transported volume of 3.3m teu, and an improved average freight rate, of $1,480 per teu, both 9% higher than in the same quarter of 2024. The gain in liftings means Hapag-Lloyd likely won market share in the period.
However, for its full year forecast, Hapag-Lloyd was less optimistic in a market characterised by “many uncertainties”, and expects lower results for 2025 as a whole, with ebitda in the range of $2.5bn to $4bn and ebit between break-even and $1.5bn.
“The ongoing tense situation in the Red Sea and global trade conflict could have a significant impact on supply and demand in container shipping, and thus also on Hapag-Lloyd’s earnings performance,” explained CEO Rolf Habben Jansen.
Meanwhile, ONE presented shareholders with two full-year outlooks, based on “the prevailing geopolitical landscape and the significant economic instability introduced by recent tariff developments in April”.
“Forecasting a precise full-year profit figure for 2025 presents considerable challenges,” it added.
ONE said that, while overall cargo movement remained stable from FY March 2023 to March 2024, since the lunar new year in February 2024, weakness had been particularly noticeable on east-west routes, with recovery lagging and a downward trend in rates.
But while the future looks uncertain, ONE today told shareholders its 2024 earnings report had “significantly improved” from the year before.
Ebit for last year was $3.8bn, up 871%, and ebitda was just over $5.9bn, up 192% from 2023’s $2bn.
On transpacific services, ONE vessels lifted 630,000 teu eastbound in Q1 25 (defined as Q4 in its financial calendar) and some 250,000 teu westbound, compared with last year’s 616,000 teu and 295,000 teu, respectively, meaning volumes eastbound rose 2.2% and westbound they fell around 18%, quarter on quarter.
For Asia-Europe, ONE transported 426,000 teu westbound and just under 249,000 teu eastbound, following 382,000 teu and 238,000 teu in the same period last year, volumes up around 10% westbound and up around 4.4% eastbound.
