Global trade may be entering a more volatile phase, but business confidence remains resilient. According to DP World’s newly released Global Trade Observatory (GTO) Annual Outlook Report 2026, an overwhelming 94% of global supply chain and logistics leaders expect trade growth in 2026 to match or exceed the pace seen in 2025, even as geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty and trade barriers persist.
The findings are based on a survey of 3,500 senior executives across eight industries and 19 countries, conducted ahead of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos. More than half of respondents (54%) anticipate faster trade growth in 2026, while 40% expect growth to remain stable compared with 2025.
This optimism stands in contrast to broader macroeconomic forecasts. The International Monetary Fund has projected global trade growth by volume could slow to 2.3% in 2026, down from an estimated 3.6% in 2025, highlighting a disconnect between frontline industry sentiment and economic projections.
Despite the positive outlook, executives remain clear-eyed about the risks ahead. Around 53% expect high or very high levels of policy uncertainty, and 90% believe trade barriers will either rise or remain unchanged. Even so, only a quarter of respondents foresee a negative impact on their businesses, while 49% expect no impact and 26% anticipate positive effects.
When asked about regions offering the strongest trade growth potential in 2026, Europe ranked highest at 22%, followed by China at 17%, Asia Pacific at 14% and North America at 13%.
Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, Group Chairman and CEO of DP World, said the findings underline a shift in how companies approach global trade. “Global trade is becoming increasingly complex, not less so. Our role is clear: to keep trade moving by understanding where friction exists, anticipating where it may emerge next, and investing in the infrastructure, capabilities and partnerships that help our customers operate more efficiently and reliably,” he said.
The report suggests that companies are no longer relying on optimism alone. Instead, resilience is being embedded directly into strategy. Supplier diversification was cited by 51% of respondents as a key strategic move for 2026, while 44% plan to hold higher inventory levels and 36% are pursuing friend-shoring strategies.
Route flexibility is also becoming a priority. About 26% of companies plan to use new trade routes in 2026, while a further 23% are actively evaluating alternatives. Cost savings are driving decisions, improved inland connectivity and infrastructure, and faster customs clearance times.
However, border friction remains a major constraint. Nearly 60% of executives identified customs clearance as a leading cause of delays and disruption. In response, companies are prioritising investment in warehousing and logistics hubs, road networks, and border and customs processing infrastructure.
Margareta Drzeniek, Managing Partner at Geneva-based Horizon Group, which developed the outlook with DP World, described the prevailing mood as “confidence with contingency plans”. “Executives are embedding resilience into strategy by diversifying suppliers, reassessing routes and adding options, because volatility is now the baseline. Those best positioned will be the ones who can turn those resilience plans into measurable performance,” she said.
The Global Trade Observatory is DP World’s data- and insights-led platform aimed at providing decision-makers with actionable intelligence on the forces reshaping global trade. The 2026 outlook is grounded in research conducted in November 2025, offering a snapshot of how global businesses are preparing to navigate an increasingly complex trading environment.
