India’s crude oil import strategy is entering a phase of calibrated rebalancing, with Middle Eastern suppliers — led by Saudi Arabia — regaining market share even as Russian volumes remain significant but increasingly shaped by geopolitical and compliance constraints, according to shipping data and analysts.
During February 1–18, India’s total crude imports averaged 4.85 million barrels per day (bpd), down 8 per cent from January’s 5.25 million bpd. The decline comes amid cooling flows from Russia following fresh US sanctions on key Russian exporters and the European Union’s 18th sanctions package that came into effect last month.
Ship tracking data indicates that Russian shipments to India fell from 1.28 million bpd in December 2025 to 1.22 million bpd in January and further to around 1.09 million bpd in early February — a drop of about 10 per cent month-on-month.
“Russian crude imports into India are estimated at around 1.0–1.2 million bpd in February, easing toward roughly 800,000 bpd to 1 million bpd in March,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler.
India had significantly ramped up purchases of discounted Russian crude following the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, analysts now see imports stabilising rather than collapsing.
“We continue to see this as a short-term stabilisation rather than a return to the mid-2025 peak, and we expect Russia’s share in India’s crude slate to gradually stabilise to a lower range in 2026 compared to 2024–2025 as commercial and policy frictions build,” Ritolia noted.
With Russian flows softening, the immediate replacement has largely come from the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia. Imports from the Kingdom have risen to their highest level since November 2019.
“While Saudi Arabia is currently positioned as India’s largest supplier in February (till date), followed by Russia and Iraq, we expect some moderation in volumes from Saudi Arabia as the month closes. Overall volumes from Iraq and Saudi Arabia are likely to be similar, around 1–1.1 million bpd,” Ritolia added, noting that the current levels still mark a multi-year high.
The evolving trade pattern underscores India’s effort to balance cost competitiveness with geopolitical risk management, ensuring supply security while navigating tightening global compliance frameworks.
