Dirty tanker loadings from Russian ports in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov have fallen sharply following Ukraine’s intensified maritime drone campaign, significantly disrupting oil export flows from the region, according to BIMCO.
“During the last two weeks of July, dirty tanker loadings from Russian Black Sea and Sea of Azov ports fell 62% compared to the previous four weeks’ average. Exports averaged 0.98 million barrels per day (mbpd) compared to 2.59 mbpd in the previous four weeks,” said Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
The sharp decline follows Operation MoLoChKa, a large-scale maritime drone campaign launched by Ukraine on 6 July 2026. Initially targeting Russia-linked shipping in the Sea of Azov, the operation later expanded into the Black Sea on 15 July. According to Ukrainian authorities, the campaign aims to disrupt oil, fuel, and cargo logistics supporting Russia’s operations and sanctions circumvention, including supplies to occupied Crimea.
By 28 July, Ukraine claimed that more than 200 vessels had been attacked.
The offensive has severely impacted shipping operations in the region, reportedly prompting Russia to suspend navigation through the Kerch Strait and the Don-Azov Canal, creating major bottlenecks for export cargoes. The escalation in attacks has also increased operational risks for shipowners, potentially discouraging participation in Black Sea trade.
Kazakhstan’s oil exports have also been significantly affected.
“Kazakh dirty tanker exports have been hurt as badly as Russian exports as oil loadings from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal in Novorossiysk have fallen 62% during the past two weeks compared to the previous four weeks,” Rasmussen noted.
Several of Ukraine’s reported attacks have been concentrated around the CPC terminal at Novorossiysk, despite nearly 75% of the terminal’s year-to-date exports being destined for European Union countries.
India, the largest single destination for crude exports from Russian Black Sea and Sea of Azov ports this year, has also experienced a significant impact. India accounted for 25% of year-to-date exports from these ports, with shipments to the country declining 66% during the past two weeks—an even steeper fall than the overall average.
The decline has affected both major tanker segments serving the trade. Aframax and Suezmax tankers, which have transported approximately 20% and 80% of volumes respectively from Russian Black Sea and Sea of Azov ports this year, have recorded similar reductions in cargo loadings.
According to BIMCO, exports from these Russian ports account for approximately 5% of global dirty tanker loadings. If current reduced export levels persist, global dirty tanker volumes could decline by around 3%, adding further pressure to a market that has already recorded a 5.6% year-on-year decline in dirty tanker volumes so far in 2026.
The sustained disruption highlights the growing impact of the Black Sea conflict on global tanker markets and crude oil supply chains, with repercussions extending well beyond the region.
