India is set to more than double soybean imports to around 500,000 tonnes in 2026/27, as weaker domestic production is expected to tighten supplies, according to the latest forecast from the USDA’s New Delhi office. The estimate is up sharply from its previous projection of 200,000 tonnes.
The USDA has lowered its soybean production forecast for India to 9.6 million tonnes, with the crop affected by irregular monsoon rainfall and replanting disruptions, particularly in Maharashtra. Farmers have also shifted acreage from soybeans to crops such as cotton and corn, which offer more attractive returns.
Soybean acreage is forecast at 11.4 million hectares, with average yields estimated at 0.91 tonnes per hectare. The production decline is expected to increase India’s dependence on imported supplies to meet demand from the food and animal-feed sectors.
The USDA has also raised its estimate for soybean feed use by 25% to about 1.13 million tonnes, compared with its earlier forecast of 900,000 tonnes. Growing use of corn for ethanol production is encouraging greater reliance on soybean meal in the poultry sector.
Lower soybean availability is also expected to affect domestic oil production. India’s soybean oil production forecast has been cut by 6% to 1.6 million tonnes, while consumption is projected to rise 3% year-on-year to 7.5 million tonnes. Soybean oil imports are consequently forecast at 5.6 million tonnes in 2026/27.
Brazil and Argentina are expected to remain key suppliers of soybean oil to India, supported by competitive prices. The developments underline the growing role of imports in meeting India’s edible-oil and feed requirements as domestic soybean production faces weather-related pressure.