The global dry bulk shipping market is expected to remain resilient through 2026, supported by stronger cargo demand and longer sailing distances, although the outlook continues to hinge on developments in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the latest market outlook from the BIMCO.
BIMCO has outlined two forecast scenarios based on the future accessibility of the strategic waterway. The first assumes the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for an extended period, while the second assumes it reopens by the end of the third quarter of 2026. The shipping association noted that the longer the disruption continues, the more closely market conditions will resemble the prolonged closure scenario.
Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO, said uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains the key factor influencing the dry bulk market. Although a three-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran allowed vessel transits to partially recover, safety conditions have since deteriorated. Under normal circumstances, approximately 4% of global dry bulk cargo volumes and tonne-mile demand pass through the strategic waterway.
BIMCO has not assumed a full return of commercial dry bulk shipping to the Red Sea in either forecast scenario. The ongoing security situation remains uncertain, particularly after the Houthis announced a blockade of Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports. A complete return to Red Sea routes could reduce global tonne-mile demand by around 2%, the association said.
For 2026, BIMCO expects dry bulk fleet supply to grow by 1.5% to 2.5% under both scenarios. Effective supply growth will remain below overall fleet expansion due to increased port congestion and the continued underutilization of approximately 0.5% of the global dry bulk fleet trapped in the Persian Gulf.
Demand, however, is projected to outpace supply in both cases, supported by stronger grain and coal shipments and longer voyage distances. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, demand is forecast to increase by 2.5% to 3.5%. Should the strait reopen by the end of the third quarter, demand growth is expected to be approximately one percentage point higher.
Looking ahead to 2027, BIMCO expects supply growth to accelerate to between 3.5% and 4.5% if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. If it reopens, supply growth could increase by an additional 0.5 percentage points as vessels currently trapped in the Persian Gulf return to the global fleet.
Demand growth is forecast to moderate in 2027 and remain below supply growth under both scenarios. If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, demand is expected to rise by 0.5% to 1.5%. In the reopening scenario, demand growth could be around 1.5 percentage points higher.
BIMCO also highlighted weather-related factors that could further support the dry bulk market over the coming year. The anticipated arrival of El Niño may lead to increased restrictions on vessel transits through the Panama Canal, forcing ships to take longer alternative routes. In addition, a weaker monsoon in India could reduce hydroelectric power generation and increase the country’s demand for imported coal, further supporting dry bulk shipping demand.
