China’s imports of Russian crude oil are forecast to hit an all-time high in February 2026, marking a notable shift in global energy flows as India scales back its purchases, industry and ship-tracking data show.
Preliminary estimates from market analytics firms indicate that China is on track to receive about 2.07–2.08 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil this month — the highest level on record and up sharply from January’s roughly 1.7 million bpd.
The surge reflects growing demand from independent Chinese refiners — particularly smaller “teapot” facilities — which have been snapping up heavily discounted Russian crude. Deep price discounts, with some grades trading about $9–$11 below the ICE Brent benchmark, have made Moscow’s barrels particularly attractive to Chinese buyers.
At the same time, India’s intake of Russian crude has slowed significantly. Data suggests New Delhi’s imports of Russian oil are set to fall to around 1.159 million bpd in February, down from higher levels earlier in the year, as geopolitical pressures and a broader energy strategy have prompted refiners to pivot toward alternative suppliers.
The result is a reshaping of Russia’s export landscape: China has effectively overtaken India as Moscow’s largest seaborne oil customer in recent months, absorbing cargoes that may have otherwise been destined for South Asia. Observers say the trend underscores how sanctions, diplomatic dynamics and price incentives are influencing global crude flows in early 2026.
Economists note that prolonged divergence in buying patterns could influence pricing, refinery margins and energy relationships across Asia and beyond, especially if Western pressure on Russian energy continues to evolve.
