Airfreight shippers should expect to see market shifts as ecommerce players change strategies. While the US is grabbing all the headlines, other markets are likely to become more key than before.
One ecommerce specialist said: “There is a whole new scenario developing out there, shifts in thinking and markets. The US is so much in the media, and of course it’s important, but there are other things happening.
“In the Gulf, India, Vietnam, and Europe etc, ecommerce and express is huge, and not talked about.
“Ecommerce is not going away, it’s what clients want. The sky is not falling, just shifting.
“For hundreds of millions in poorer economies. ecommerce brings the ability to access goods they would never be able to shop for or afford. And as these markets become the focus, the US will become less and less important, as it should.”
For now, though, many carriers will be carefully looking at the China-US market in an attempt to understand what is going to happen. And finally, airfreight data is starting to normalise after Chinese New Year, with tonnages out of Asia Pacific now close to pre-holiday levels.
WorldACD said today rates were edging upwards, and remained above last year’s levels.
But while tonnage out of Asia Pacific has recovered 6% in the last week, the main gains are out of South Korea (up 7%), Vietnam (up 8%), and Thailand (up 18%).
Demand to the US from Asia Pacific regained 5%, with tonnages back to mid-January levels. Demand from China was up 2%, but from Hong Kong and Japan they rose 11%.
Spot rates from Asia Pacific to the US went up 4%, to $4.99 per kg. Rates out of China to the US regained 9% after three consecutive weeks of declines, standing at $4.08 per kg in week eight. Hong Kong to the US rates rose 4%, to $4.02/kg.
WorldACD added: “Japan to US and South Korea to US spot rates both lost ground, but they remain strong at $6.75 and $5.73 per kg, respectively. And Vietnam to US and Thailand to US spot prices both edged back up 4%, to $5.34 and $5.74 per kg, respectively.”
Meanwhile, Asia Pacific to Europe rates fell slightly, to an average of $3.99 per kg, with declines from China (-3%), Hong Kong (-3%) and Japan (-6%), but South Korea to Europe spot rates held firm.
Dimerco said in today’s forecast for March that it expects capacity to be soft out of all Chinese regions, and that rates would be stable, with the exception of Hong Kong, from where it expects to see an upturn in the market to Europe.
“Full recovery [out of China] is expected by March, with factories and airlines returning to normal,” it said. “Freight rates are likely to rise slightly in March as market demand recovers, especially for US and European lanes.”
The South Korean market would tighten, it added.
“Bookings to the US should be made at least two weeks in advance, due to high demand and limited space. Fuel surcharges will increase slightly [until] 15 March, based on market conditions.”
But Vietnam, which has been much touted as the next big export country, has seen exports decrease, said Dimerco.
While much has been written about the US’s ending of the de minimis exemption for Chinese imports, Dimerco has warned that a similar situation could hit Europe, with the EC pushing to remove its de minimis exemption for low-value parcels, aligning with the US.
“This exemption has driven a surge in air cargo imports from China. The EC is calling for joint action from member states to curb unsafe, counterfeit, and non-compliant goods. Its consumer protection authority has launched a coordinated action against Shein.”
Kathy Liu, VP global sales and marketing for Dimerco, said: “Ecommerce has significantly impacted the air freight market. In 2024, rates began rising right after Chinese New Year, with no clear slack season. However, [this year] following policy announcements from the Trump administration, the market slowed considerably after 20 January, particularly in the US and Europe. This led to ecommerce platforms cancelling charters, disrupting the supply and demand balance.
“While ecommerce will not disappear, it is shifting from a B2C model to a B2B2C model. This transition is expected to reduce air freight demand, with more shipments moving to ocean freight instead.”
