Global coal shipments rose 14% year-on-year in June 2026, led by a sharp increase in imports by China, according to shipping association BIMCO. The rebound marks a significant turnaround in the seaborne coal market, with global shipments up 3% year-on-year during the first half of 2026 after declining 4% in 2025.
According to Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO, China’s coal imports surged 41% year-on-year in June as the country sought to compensate for weaker domestic coal production while meeting higher electricity demand.
The acceleration in imports followed a mining accident in Shanxi Province on 28 May 2026, which resulted in the temporary closure of 109 coal mines for safety inspections. Although some mines resumed operations in June, production remains below pre-accident levels, supporting stronger import demand. Despite the June surge, China’s coal imports for the year to date remain 3% lower than the same period last year.
Beyond China, coal imports also strengthened across other major consuming regions. Shipments to South Korea increased 25% year-on-year, while Japan and the European Union recorded gains of 13% and 15%, respectively. BIMCO attributed the higher demand to tighter LNG supplies since March 2026, following continued transit disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting utilities to rely more heavily on coal.
The increase in coal trade has provided a strong boost to the dry bulk shipping market, particularly the panamax segment. Coal accounted for approximately half of panamax tonne-mile demand during June, contributing to a 73% year-on-year rise in S&P Global Energy’s Platts KMAX 9 freight index.
On the supply side, Indonesia and Russia recorded the strongest export growth, with shipments rising 12% and 33% year-on-year, respectively. Indonesia also announced plans to expand its coal production quota after initially targeting 600 million tonnes for 2026, a level that had been set 24% below 2025 production.
Looking ahead, BIMCO expects the outlook for coal shipments to remain mixed. A recovery in China’s domestic coal production as mine inspections conclude could reduce import demand in the coming months. However, the anticipated arrival of El Niño is expected to increase coal consumption across India and Southeast Asia by weakening the monsoon season and reducing hydroelectric power generation. India has already recorded its driest June in 12 years, raising concerns over hydroelectric output.
BIMCO also highlighted the Strait of Hormuz as a key uncertainty for global coal trade. While the recent US-Iran ceasefire has increased vessel transits through the strategic waterway, operational and security challenges remain. A sustained return to normal shipping conditions will likely depend on the achievement of a lasting peace agreement, which could ease LNG supply constraints and reduce coal import demand in key markets such as South Korea, Japan and the European Union.
