The global container shipping fleet is experiencing a significant recycling backlog, with estimates indicating a minimum overhang of 500 ships, equivalent to 1.8 million TEU, according to BIMCO.
“So far this year, only 10 container ships have been recycled, continuing a trend of low recycling activity since 2021. Many vessels are trading well beyond their usual recycling age,” said Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
The share of ships aged 20 years or older has risen sharply, from 16% at the start of 2020 to 24% currently—the highest proportion since the early 1970s. These aging vessels are expected to constitute the bulk of future recycling.
Historical analysis of fleet lifecycles shows that, between 2000 and 2019, 20% of ships were recycled before 20 years of age, and 53% were recycled before turning 25. Using these patterns, BIMCO estimates the current minimum recycling overhang at 500 ships (1.8 million TEU). Under weaker market conditions similar to the 2010s, the overhang could reach up to 850 ships, or 3.1 million TEU.
Even at its peak, recycling is unlikely to clear the backlog quickly. The highest annual recycling on record was in 2016, with 185 ships totaling 0.6 million TEU.
Rasmussen added, “Future recycling is difficult to predict accurately, but our estimates indicate an overhang of 6–10% of currently trading ships, representing 33–55% of vessels older than 20 years. Notably, this overhang exceeds the current order book for ships smaller than 8,000 TEU, suggesting that fleet growth in the coming years will likely be driven by larger vessels. This could accelerate the cascading of bigger ships onto routes currently served by smaller vessels.”
The findings highlight potential shifts in fleet dynamics, recycling pressure, and long-term market implications for container shipping.
