The global dry-bulk shipping sector is bracing for a difficult year in 2026 as stagnant demand for traditional commodities coincides with fleet expansion, putting pressure on freight rates and second-hand vessel values.
Analysts from the Baltic and International Maritime Council (Bimco), the world’s largest shipowners’ association, warn that shipments of coal and iron ore—the backbone of the bulk shipping market—are likely to stagnate or decline.
Iron ore volumes are expected to remain flat, constrained by sluggish steel demand in China amid a property market slowdown and broader economic weakness, limiting the need for imported ore. Coal exports, meanwhile, are projected to fall by up to 2% in 2026, following a 2–3% decline in 2025, as countries increasingly shift toward renewable energy. Rising domestic production in key markets such as China and India is also weighing on the sector, according to Maritime Professional and Container News.
Overall cargo demand growth for 2026 is anticipated to be modest, unlikely to exceed 2%.
On the supply side, Bimco forecasts that deliveries of new bulk carriers will expand the global fleet by 2–3% in 2026, particularly in the Panamax and Supramax segments. This growth could intensify oversupply concerns, further depressing freight rates and second-hand vessel values. Operators are expected to continue slowing sailing speeds to save fuel, partially mitigating oversupply but not eliminating it entirely, MarineLink reported.
The impact is expected to vary across vessel classes. Panamax and Supramax carriers, which transport large volumes of coal, are likely to face the greatest pressure, while Capesize vessels may fare slightly better due to slower fleet growth and longer-haul routes.
Some stabilising factors could offer partial relief. Analysts point to potential growth in minor-bulk trades—including grains, fertilisers, and non-iron ore minerals—that may offset some weakness in coal and iron ore shipments. Fleet consolidation through the scrapping of older vessels may also help rebalance supply and demand.
“Structural changes in energy consumption, slower global economic growth, and trade policy uncertainties make the dry bulk sector vulnerable,” said Filipe Gouveia, Bimco’s shipping analysis manager. “We expect that the market’s supply-demand balance will weaken in both 2025 and 2026.”
Shipowners and operators are being advised to focus on efficiency, cost control, and diversification away from traditional bulk commodities to navigate the market successfully, rather than expecting growth in the near term.
