The rebound in India’s exports to the United States after September reflects exporters’ adjustment to a tougher tariff regime rather than any meaningful relief, and remains fragile, according to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
The study said the recovery has been driven largely by short-term coping strategies such as cost absorption, price renegotiations and shipment of less tariff-sensitive or hard-to-substitute products, rather than a durable improvement in trade conditions.
India’s exports to the US followed a clear two-phase trend between May and November 2025 — a sharp decline until September, followed by a partial recovery by November. Commerce Ministry data show that exports to the US rose 22.61 per cent in November to $6.98 billion, despite the continued imposition of 50 per cent tariffs on several Indian goods from August-end.
GTRI noted that the initial fall between May and September was triggered by uncertainty over impending tariff hikes, prompting US buyers to delay orders and run down inventories. “Once the higher tariffs became certain, exporters and US buyers began adjusting — absorbing part of the cost, renegotiating prices, and shifting toward less-affected or hard-to-substitute products,” the report said.
Interestingly, exports declined during the period when tariffs were relatively low — 10 per cent from May to July, rising to 25 per cent between August 7 and 27 — and hit their lowest point in September, the first full month under the 50 per cent tariff regime. Exports then partially recovered between September and November, even though the higher tariffs remained in place.
Nearly 85 per cent of November exports came from sectors that had earlier declined and then rebounded. Gems and jewellery exports, for instance, fell sharply from $500.2 million in May to $202.8 million in September, before recovering to $406.2 million in November.
A similar pattern was observed across electronics, including smartphones, machinery, vehicles and auto components, pharmaceuticals, textiles and garments, carpets, mineral fuels, organic chemicals, plastics, rubber articles, fish, dairy products, and edible fruits and nuts.
According to GTRI, the unusual trend — sharper export declines under lower tariffs followed by a partial recovery under higher tariffs — underlines the temporary nature of the rebound. The report cautioned that without structural relief or sustained demand, India’s export performance to the US could remain vulnerable in the coming months.
