The gradual return of commercial shipping to the Red Sea has reached a key milestone, signalling cautious improvement in one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors after months of severe disruption.
Industry data and shipping sources indicate that a growing number of container vessels, tankers and bulk carriers are once again transiting parts of the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, reversing a prolonged shift to the longer Cape of Good Hope route. The milestone reflects increased confidence among shipowners following enhanced naval patrols, improved coordination among maritime security forces and a reassessment of risk levels by insurers.
Since late 2024, attacks on merchant vessels had sharply reduced traffic through the Red Sea, forcing carriers to reroute ships around southern Africa. The diversions added weeks to voyage times, drove up fuel costs and contributed to higher freight rates, particularly on Asia–Europe trade lanes. Ports, cargo owners and global supply chains felt the impact as capacity tightened and schedules became increasingly unreliable.
The recent uptick in transits suggests some stabilisation, though shipping executives stress that the recovery remains fragile. Many carriers are adopting a phased approach, deploying selected vessels through the Red Sea while continuing diversions for others, depending on cargo type, charter terms and insurance coverage. War risk premiums, while easing slightly, remain elevated compared with pre-crisis levels.
Analysts say the milestone is important but does not yet mark a full return to normal operations. Any renewed security incidents could quickly reverse the trend, and most liners are maintaining contingency plans. “This is a confidence-building phase rather than a complete reopening,” one industry source said, adding that sustained calm will be essential before traffic fully normalises.
For global trade, even a partial return is expected to ease pressure on supply chains, shorten transit times and gradually soften freight rates. However, stakeholders caution that the Red Sea’s recovery will be incremental, with the shipping industry closely watching security developments in the region in the weeks ahead.
