The global container shipping market could face renewed pressure if vessels return to normal Red Sea and Suez Canal routings, potentially reducing ship demand by as much as 10%, according to BIMCO.
In its latest market outlook, BIMCO forecasts largely stable conditions through 2026, with a possibility of slightly weaker fundamentals emerging in 2027. Ship demand is projected to grow by 2.5%–3.5% in both 2026 and 2027, while fleet supply is expected to increase by 3% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027.
However, a gradual normalization of routing patterns appears increasingly likely. From January, CMA CGM’s INDAMEX service will fully return to the Suez Canal, while its MEX service will transit the canal on the Europe–Asia backhaul leg. If these changes prove successful, other carriers may follow suit, significantly reducing ton-mile demand that has been inflated by longer Cape of Good Hope diversions.
On the demand side, North American import container volumes are expected to decline by 3% in 2025, with negative growth continuing into the first half of 2026 before recovering in the second half. BIMCO forecasts modest growth of around 2% in both 2026 and 2027.
BIMCO also highlights macroeconomic risks, particularly in the United States. “Up to 70% of US economic growth in 2025 may be driven by AI investments and wealth effects linked to rising AI-related share prices,” said Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO. “Should the AI bubble burst, it could significantly hurt the US economy with spillover consequences for the world economy and container ship demand growth.”
On the supply side, BIMCO has factored in recycling of about 750,000 TEU during 2026–2027. However, Rasmussen cautioned that a recycling overhang of roughly 1.8 million TEU exists, as only 272,000 TEU has been recycled over the past five years. Lower-than-expected recycling could therefore exacerbate oversupply.
Average sailing speeds have edged down slightly to 14.7 knots year-to-date in 2025, compared with 14.8 knots in 2024, though they remain above the 14.4 knots recorded in 2023. BIMCO expects carriers to slow vessels further as more ships are delivered, incorporating a 0.25-knot reduction in both 2026 and 2027. Failure to do so could push effective supply growth up by an additional 1.2 percentage points annually.
“While our forecast indicates mostly stable market conditions, several uncertainties remain,” Rasmussen said. “In particular, the possibility of a return to Suez Canal routings looms large over the market outlook. Combined with other supply and demand risks, the next two years could prove more eventful than our headline forecast suggests.”
