Weak ecommerce demand has seen cancellations of airline block space agreements and charters, particularly to the US, according to Dimerco.
It’s against this background that Ceva Logistics is advertising a new transpacific charter flight, connecting Wuxi to Chicago (O’Hare), three times a week. The service, on an Atlas-Air operated whitetail 747F, is in partnership with Wuxi Airport, part of the Yangtze River Delta Economic Development Zone.
Dimerco said the weak ecommerce market had led to an oversupply of capacity relative to demand.
It added that a recent rise in spot rates had been driven by shippers wanting to move goods before the end of Q1.
“Many shippers had been holding shipments since January, waiting for tariff announcements by the Trump administration. With the quarter-end approaching, goods were released, and the market has now quieted,” it said.
“Based on current trends, we expect the market slowdown to persist until June, unless there’s a surge in ecommerce demand or new tariffs are introduced in the coming weeks,” said Kathy Liu VP, global sales and marketing for Dimerco Express Group.
“The increase in cargo volume [in the second week of March] was brief, lasting only two weeks and primarily from key gateways in China. Compared with the same period in 2024, the volume increase is not significant, with no notable capacity shortages in the market.”
Capacity may shift to intra-Asia instead, said the forwarder.
“The Intra-Asia market remains strong due to the transportation of raw materials and parts among China, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia. With production shifting away from China and ecommerce demand remaining soft, carriers may allocate more capacity to South-east Asia instead.”
It added that transpacific eastbound had seen a small rise in demand in the second week of March, but that had stabilised.
“Trade tensions and tariff uncertainties are leading to delays in block space agreement (BSA) negotiations, as shippers shift to short-term contracts instead of long-term deals for Q2. This has created uncertainty in the air cargo market, impacting both pricing and capacity strategies. Carriers are adjusting their focus, potentially shifting away from China and exploring South-east Asia and transatlantic routes.”
WorldACD was more upbeat about airfreight demand however. It said in the third week of March, global rates regained 4%, with spot rates up 5% and contract rates up 3%. However, global volumes dropped by 1%. Tac Index data was broadly similar.
Tonnages from Asia to the US rose, however – up week on week by 13% from south Korea, 6% from Vietnam, 5% from Hong Kong and 2% from China, with China-US spot rates up 5% on the previous week, said WorldACD. But spot rates from Hong Kong to the US fell 9%, while there were increases from Taiwan, up 16%, Malaysia, up 13%, Vietnam, up 10%, and Japan, up 7%.
Asia Pacific to Europe saw tonnages increase by 2% week on week, while spot prices also gained 2%. China to Europe spot prices to $4 per kg, around 5% below their average level in January.
But Dimerco warned that the second quarter could be weak.
