Uncertainty surrounding the Red Sea and Suez Canal continues to influence global freight planning in December, with Dimerco cautioning that a return to traditional Suez routing remains unclear despite ongoing discussions in the shipping industry. The report notes that even a ceasefire may not ensure safe passage, prompting carriers to remain cautious about reinstating the route. This unresolved situation is expected to keep the market volatile, with routing decisions directly impacting transit times, capacity and supply chain flows across Asia and beyond.
According to Dimerco, the industry’s outlook is now shaped by two major unknowns — inventory restocking trends and the potential return of vessels to the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Carriers remain conservative as current conditions do not guarantee operational safety. Should they eventually resume Suez transits, additional capacity may enter the market, potentially easing rates. Continued diversions via the Cape of Good Hope, however, would mean longer transit times and possible equipment shortages, adding to global logistics instability.
The uncertainty coincides with strong Asia-Pacific air freight activity. Dimerco’s December update highlights sustained transpacific demand driven by e-commerce shipments to the US following Black Friday and Thanksgiving promotions. High-volume flows from Southeast Asia continue to fill major hubs such as Taipei, Hong Kong, Incheon, Narita and Singapore, while demand on China–Mexico lanes is rising as shippers move cargo ahead of potential tariff changes.
Intra-Asia movements remain active, with raw materials being transported between China, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia to support regional production cycles. Airlines indicate that 2026 BSA rates may hover near current levels even if markets soften next year, keeping a firm undertone across the region and influencing capacity available to India through key transit hubs.
India’s air freight market remains robust, supported by electronics, garments and e-commerce exports. Capacity to the US is tight as most India–US shipments are being routed through Europe, reducing available space. Winter fog in North India and congestion at major hubs may add further pressure, while limited new freighters and constrained belly space continue to restrict supply.
Across Southeast Asia, markets including the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia report tight or rising rates, particularly on US and Europe lanes. Vietnam expects limited space until Christmas and New Year, while the Philippines warns that regular rates no longer guarantee uplift from Manila. Singapore is also seeing heightened demand as shippers push quarter-end volumes ahead of the holiday period.
North American trends are influencing flows tied to India as well. Capacity from the US to Asia is tightening due to high-tech exports, and some Chicago terminals are experiencing congestion. Canada reports stable conditions, though with fewer direct flights to Asia.
Earlier weather disruptions in China led carriers to reallocate capacity from short-haul to long-haul routes, further tightening Southeast Asia lanes. The grounding of MD-11F aircraft following a crash has reduced global long-haul freighter capacity, particularly on e-commerce-heavy sectors, and may keep rates elevated through December.
With peak-season demand persisting and uncertainty over the Red Sea–Suez corridor unresolved, Indian exporters are being advised to plan ahead, consider flexible routings and prepare for longer transit times. A combination of regional tightness, weather-related impacts and global routing challenges is expected to keep India’s air freight market under strain through the month.
