Iran has continued exporting crude oil through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, sending millions of barrels largely destined for China despite heightened security risks following the ongoing US–Israel war with Iran.
According to shipping intelligence firm TankerTrackers, at least 11.7 million barrels of Iranian crude have transited the strait since the conflict began on February 28. The firm’s co-founder Samir Madani told CNBC that the entire volume appears to be headed to China.
TankerTrackers monitors global tanker movements using satellite imagery, enabling it to track ships even when onboard tracking systems are disabled. Madani noted that several vessels have “gone dark” after Tehran warned it could target ships attempting to move through the waterway.
Another shipping analytics firm, Kpler, estimated that around 12 million barrels of crude have passed through the strait since the outbreak of the war. Kpler crude analyst Nhway Khin Soe said China has been the primary buyer of Iranian crude in recent years, suggesting a significant portion of these shipments may ultimately be bound for Chinese refineries. However, she cautioned that confirming final destinations has become increasingly difficult amid the current security environment.
Neither Iran nor China has formally acknowledged the reported shipments.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor that handles nearly 20% of global oil and gas shipments, has seen a sharp drop in traffic since tensions escalated. Many tanker operators are avoiding the route due to rising security concerns.
According to the International Maritime Organization, at least 10 vessels operating in or near the strait were attacked by Iran within two weeks of the conflict’s outbreak, leaving seven seafarers dead.
An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson told CNBC that tankers navigating the waterway “must be very careful.” Madani also noted that three of the six tankers departing Iran since February 28 were flying the Iranian flag, indicating continued state-linked shipments.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump urged ships waiting near the strait to resume their passage. Speaking to Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade, Trump said vessels stranded near the waterway should “show some guts” and proceed, claiming there was “nothing to be afraid of.”
Amid the tensions, Iran appears to be exploring alternative export routes.
Historically, about 90% of Iran’s crude exports have been shipped from the Kharg Island terminal before passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, Tehran has recently resumed loading tankers at the Jask oil terminal, located on the Gulf of Oman south of the strait.
Satellite imagery has shown an Iranian vessel loading around 2 million barrels of crude at the facility — only the fifth such loading in five years, according to TankerTrackers.
Analysts say the move suggests Iran is attempting to diversify export routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz. However, the Jask terminal’s operational limitations remain a challenge. Loading a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) at the facility can take up to 10 days, compared with one to two days at Kharg Island, limiting its effectiveness as a large-scale alternative.
Despite the ongoing conflict and maritime risks, the continued crude shipments highlight Iran’s efforts to sustain oil exports — and China’s continued reliance on discounted Iranian crude — even as shipping traffic across one of the world’s most critical energy corridors remains under pressure.
