Ongoing tensions between Israel, the US, and Iran are creating disruptions in freight movement across the Middle East, putting several Indian agricultural exports at significant risk, according to a report by the Delhi-based Global Trade Research Institute (GTRI).
The analysis highlights six Indian farm produce categories that are most vulnerable, collectively accounting for nearly $1 billion in exports in 2025. These include: Sheep and goat meat (98.9% of exports to the Gulf), Fresh or chilled beef (97.4%), Copra or dried coconut kernel (83.9%), Beer (81.0%), Bananas and plantains (79.6%), Nutmeg, mace, and cardamom (70.5%)
“The Gulf has historically been a major market due to its proximity and large Indian diaspora. But the ongoing conflict, shipping disruptions, and rising insurance costs are creating significant uncertainty for exporters,” said Ajay Srivastava, founder of GTRI.
In 2025, India exported nearly $11.8 billion worth of agricultural and food products to the Gulf, accounting for over one-fifth of the country’s total agri-exports.
Other products facing high risk, with at least 40% of their global exports going to the Gulf, include butter and dairy fats, soft drinks, coconut and palm kernel oil, manufactured tobacco products, other fresh vegetables, cheese and curd, other fresh fruits, tea, sunflower, safflower or cottonseed oil, and cigarettes, cigars, and cigarillos. Among these, tea ($410 million), tobacco products ($215 million), and butter and dairy fats ($203 million) lead in export revenue.
Rice has been categorized as medium risk, with 36.7% of global exports destined for the Gulf, amounting to $4.4 billion in 2025, making it India’s most valuable commodity exported to the region.
Products with relatively low dependence on the Gulf include coffee (17.7%), bread, biscuits, and bakery products (17.7%), raw tobacco (16.9%), other food preparations (16.9%), sugar (16.4%), and crustaceans such as shrimp and prawns (4.3%). However, prolonged instability around the Strait of Hormuz could make exports to Western countries more expensive due to longer routes and increased freight and insurance costs.
Srivastava emphasized the need for diversification, saying, “If instability persists, the impact could ripple through India’s agricultural economy, highlighting the urgency for exporters to reduce overreliance on a single region.”
