The global container shipping market continues to navigate a complex mix of geopolitical risks, trade policy uncertainty, and expanding fleet capacity, according to the latest market outlook from the BIMCO.
BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Niels Rasmussen, said that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, significant uncertainty will continue to influence market conditions. Key concerns include the durability of any US-Iran agreement, the timeline for full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the potential return of vessels to normal Suez Canal routings, and the future direction of US import tariffs after the current emergency measures expire at the end of July.
To assess the market, BIMCO has developed two scenarios. The “Strait of Hormuz Open” scenario assumes the waterway reopens during the third quarter of 2026, while the “Strait of Hormuz Closed” scenario assumes continued disruption through 2027. Under both scenarios, vessel supply is projected to outpace demand growth, leading to a weaker supply-demand balance in the coming years.
Despite ongoing disruptions, global container demand has remained resilient. During the first four months of 2026, container volumes increased by 5.1% year-on-year, supported by strong intra-Asia trade and growing exports from East and Southeast Asia to Europe, the Mediterranean, and Southern Hemisphere markets. However, Persian Gulf-related trade volumes have declined amid regional instability.
The market also faces downside risks from elevated energy prices and ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade tariffs, factors that could dampen consumer demand and influence trade flows.
Routing decisions remain a critical factor for capacity absorption. Continued diversions around the Cape of Good Hope have supported vessel demand, but a normalization of Red Sea and Suez Canal transit routes could reduce global ship demand by approximately 10%, significantly weakening market fundamentals.
Meanwhile, the industry’s orderbook continues to expand. BIMCO estimates that approximately 4.4 million TEU of new capacity will be delivered during 2026 and 2027. Combined with historically low levels of vessel recycling, this is expected to drive fleet growth of 12.7% between the end of 2025 and 2027.
In the near term, market conditions have tightened as shippers front-load cargo amid uncertainty over tariffs and bunker fuel costs. This has driven freight rates sharply higher, with the Platts Container Index surging 80% over the past month to its highest level since April 2022.
Looking ahead, BIMCO expects these short-term rate gains to fade as additional capacity enters the market. While ongoing disruptions may continue to support freight rates temporarily, the growing fleet is likely to place increasing pressure on earnings and market balance once trading conditions normalize.
