India’s decision to allow duty-free imports of up to 1 million tonnes of raw sugar has opened the door to overseas suppliers, but Pakistani sugar is unlikely to enter the Indian market because bilateral trade remains severely restricted.
The Indian government approved the duty-free imports under a Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) until October 31, 2026, in an effort to increase domestic availability and contain a sharp rise in sugar prices ahead of the festive season.
Pakistan’s sugar industry has nevertheless identified the policy as a potential opportunity. The Pakistan Sugar Mills Association has urged Islamabad to explore exports to India, with the industry reportedly holding more than 1.2 million tonnes of surplus sugar.
However, the Indian import window does not automatically permit Pakistani sugar to enter the country. India-Pakistan trade remains largely suspended amid strained bilateral relations, with existing trade channels severely restricted. Any Pakistani sugar shipment would require policy approval and an appropriate mechanism for bilateral trade.
India’s move comes as domestic sugar prices have risen sharply. The government has attributed recent price pressures partly to supply concerns and has also introduced tighter stockholding limits to curb hoarding and speculative activity.
For Pakistan’s sugar mills, access to India could offer a geographically close outlet for surplus stocks, potentially reducing storage costs and improving cash flow ahead of the next sugarcane crushing season. But without a change in bilateral trade policy, the opportunity remains largely theoretical.
The immediate beneficiaries of India’s duty-free import window are therefore expected to be suppliers from markets with established trading channels with India. Pakistani producers may have surplus sugar available, but political and trade restrictions remain the main barrier to accessing the Indian market.