The Arabian Gulf’s maritime trade is entering uncharted turbulence, with geopolitical tensions, climate pressures, and cyber risks threatening the region’s logistics backbone, warns a new Arthur D. Little (ADL) report.
The study, Navigating Gulf Turbulence, highlights the Gulf’s critical exposure: around 20% of global oil exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and over 90% of regional trade moves by sea. Recent events underscore the risk—Qatar Energy temporarily halted LNG carrier transits through Hormuz in June, while Red Sea insurance premiums have surged 300% due to ongoing Houthi attacks.
ADL modeling shows that a Hormuz blockade could disrupt 60 million TEUs of container traffic and 1.3 billion tonnes of liquid bulk, raising logistics costs from USD 7 billion to USD 12 billion. Oil exports would be hit hardest, with Saudi Arabia potentially losing USD 190 billion in crude shipments.
The report calls for urgent action on three fronts: predictive capability through AI and real-time monitoring, regional coordination via shared port infrastructure and contingency protocols, and resilience integration into long-term planning.
“Preparedness is not optional—it is an economic differentiator,” ADL says. Countries that can maintain continuity under stress will attract trade and investment, while those that cannot risk crippling their economies.
As the Gulf’s maritime chokepoints come under increasing strain, the report concludes: the tools to shift from reaction to preparedness exist—but political will is the missing link.
