Maersk has successfully completed its first headhaul transit through the Red Sea under the Gemini Cooperation with Hapag-Lloyd, marking a significant milestone in the gradual restoration of commercial shipping via the Suez Canal after nearly 30 months of disruption. However, the achievement has quickly been eclipsed by a sharp escalation in security risks in the Strait of Hormuz, raising fresh concerns over the reliability of one of the world’s most critical maritime trade routes.
The approximately 19,000-TEU Majestic Maersk successfully sailed through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal following Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s July 6 decision to restore their AE15 Asia-Mediterranean service to the trans-Suez corridor. The move was widely viewed as an important step towards normalising global liner networks after carriers diverted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope in response to Houthi attacks that began in late 2023.
Buoyed by the successful voyage, Maersk announced the return of its Middle East–India–US East Coast (MECL) service to the Suez route, a move expected to reduce westbound transit times by around seven days and eastbound voyages by up to two weeks.
Despite the positive development, the deteriorating security situation in the Strait of Hormuz has shifted industry attention away from the Red Sea recovery.
According to maritime intelligence, no commercial vessel larger than 10,000 deadweight tonnes has transited the Southern Highway in the Strait of Hormuz with its Automatic Identification System (AIS) switched on since July 7. While some ships are believed to have crossed the waterway with AIS disabled for security reasons, the lack of visible commercial traffic highlights the growing operational uncertainty in the region.
The development underscores a fundamental challenge facing the shipping industry. International maritime regulations require vessels to operate AIS continuously for navigational safety, but escalating threats from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have prompted many shipowners and masters to switch off the system to reduce the risk of being identified and targeted.
The result is a maritime corridor where commercial movements have become increasingly difficult to monitor, creating uncertainty for cargo owners, freight buyers, insurers and supply chain planners.
Insurance has emerged as an even greater obstacle than military threats. War-risk premiums, which had eased following the June ceasefire framework between Washington and Tehran, are expected to rise again after a series of attacks on commercial vessels during early July. Industry estimates indicate that additional war-risk premiums had already climbed to as high as 4.5–6% of a vessel’s hull value at the height of the crisis, compared with around 0.25% before tensions escalated.
The latest incidents—including missile and drone attacks on merchant vessels and renewed military exchanges between Iran and the United States—have once again forced insurers to reassess risk exposure, increasing costs for shipowners and potentially discouraging traffic through the Strait.
For global supply chains, the significance of Maersk’s return to the Red Sea is therefore being overshadowed by uncertainty in the Gulf.
While the Suez Canal appears to be gradually regaining confidence among container lines, the Strait of Hormuz remains a major bottleneck for global energy and trade. Industry observers note that restoring commercial confidence will require more than military escorts or ceasefire agreements. Until shipowners, insurers and cargo interests are confident that vessels can safely transit the region without extraordinary risk or cost, the recovery of one maritime corridor is likely to be offset by instability in another.
For importers and logistics planners, the key question is no longer whether container lines are returning to the Suez Canal, but whether a strategically vital waterway where vessels increasingly operate beyond public tracking can provide the level of predictability that global commerce demands.
