Global shipping patterns are shifting as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt Middle East energy exports, driving a sharp increase in vessel traffic through the Panama Canal.
According to BIMCO, average daily ship transits through the canal have risen 8% year-on-year to 38 vessels per day in 2026, with tanker traffic leading the surge.
“So far this year, ship transits via the Panama Canal have increased 8% y/y to a daily average of 38, driven by the tanker sector. Transits have been especially high during the past five weeks, rising 16% y/y, as US energy exports to the Pacific jumped,” said Filipe Gouveia.
The ongoing Iran conflict and reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have tightened global energy supply chains and pushed up commodity prices. As a result, US crude and energy exports to Asia and the west coast of the Americas have accelerated, increasing demand for Panama Canal transit slots.
With the canal currently operating close to its maximum daily capacity of 36–40 transits, congestion pressures are mounting. BIMCO noted that increased competition for auctioned last-minute slots has sharply inflated prices, while average waiting times have climbed 50% year-on-year to 47 hours.
Container vessels, LPG carriers, oil tankers and bulk carriers together account for roughly 77% of all canal transits. Container shipping lines generally secure bookings well in advance due to fixed schedules, while tanker and bulk operators often compete for slots closer to sailing dates.
As congestion and costs rise, some operators are considering alternative routes via the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn despite the longer voyage distances and higher fuel consumption. These diversions can sometimes offset expensive canal transit fees and provide greater scheduling flexibility.
BIMCO warned that pressure on the canal may intensify further in the coming weeks. The Panama Canal Authority has scheduled maintenance work on the east lane of the panamax locks from June 9–17, temporarily reducing available transit slots by ten per day.
Weather conditions could add another layer of risk. The anticipated arrival of El Niño between May and July may reduce rainfall in Panama, threatening water levels in Gatun Lake, the canal’s primary freshwater reservoir.
During the last major El Niño event in 2023–24, severe drought restrictions forced the canal authority to reduce daily ship movements to just 22 transits at one stage, alongside lower draught limits that constrained cargo capacity.
Industry analysts expect canal demand to remain elevated as long as Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue and US energy exports stay strong.
