The global tanker shipping market remains under severe strain as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz enters its third month, sharply disrupting seaborne oil trade and reshaping tanker demand dynamics, according to a new market outlook from BIMCO.
“The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for three months, trapping hundreds of ships and thousands of seafarers in the Persian Gulf while significantly reducing global seaborne tanker volumes,” said Niels Rasmussen.
BIMCO has outlined two potential market scenarios for the coming months. The first, termed “SoH open,” assumes the strait reopens fully before the end of the second quarter of 2026, while the second, “SoH closed,” assumes the waterway remains effectively shut throughout 2026 and 2027.
Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, combined dirty and clean tanker cargo volumes have declined by 13% year-on-year. Despite stronger cargo activity prior to the conflict, year-to-date tanker cargo volumes have still fallen 5% year-on-year, representing declines of approximately 340 million barrels in the dirty tanker segment and 147 million barrels in the clean tanker market.
To compensate for disrupted oil flows, countries have been drawing down oil inventories at an unprecedented pace. According to estimates from JPMorgan Chase, nearly 800 million barrels of oil remain available for release without affecting minimum operational pipeline and storage requirements.
“If the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, oil stocks could reach critical levels by the end of September and may no longer be able to provide a secondary source of oil supply,” Rasmussen warned.
However, BIMCO noted that the eventual reopening of the strait could trigger a significant rebound in tanker demand, particularly as global oil inventories would need to be replenished. The International Energy Agency estimates that rebuilding depleted oil stocks could require up to 1 million barrels per day over a three-year period.
The report highlighted the critical role played by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in mitigating supply disruptions by rerouting crude exports through alternative ports in the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman. Saudi Arabia has managed to sustain nearly 60% of its pre-war export levels despite around 90% of its exports traditionally moving through Persian Gulf ports. The UAE has similarly maintained more than 70% of its previous export volumes.
Although tanker freight rates initially surged following the outbreak of hostilities, spot rates across most major trade lanes have since eased back to levels seen before the conflict. Freight rates for Persian Gulf exports remain elevated, though actual market activity remains limited due to the low number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
BIMCO stated that if the strait reopens before the end of the second quarter, tanker cargo volumes are expected to gradually recover during the third quarter, normalize in the fourth quarter, and return to growth in 2027, supported by the rebuilding of global oil stocks.
However, Rasmussen cautioned that strong fleet growth, particularly in the product tanker segment, could still weaken the overall supply-demand balance in 2027. Under the prolonged closure scenario, tanker cargo volumes are expected to continue declining as global oil inventories are progressively depleted.
