Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport (ANC) and its users are bracing for disruption that could shut down the airport. Seismic activity and gas emissions have been building up at Mount Spurr, the tallest volcano in the Aleutian Range, which prompted the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) to warn that an eruption is likely within the next two weeks or months.
An image taken by the AVO on 26 March shows plumes of gas rising from the volcano. This in itself is not an indication of an imminent eruption, but tests conducted last month revealed dramatically increased emissions of sulphur dioxide and CO2. Mount Spurr was producing 450 tonnes of sulphur dioxide a day, up from 50 tonnes in December.
“In the past, such values have been observed prior to eruptions,” the AVO warned, adding that seismic activity has increased to more than 100 earthquakes a week originating from beneath the mountain.
The last time Mount Spurr erupted was in 1992, following another eruption back in 1952. The event in 1992, which occurred three weeks after warning signs similar to the current ones were first detected, shot up a pillar of ash that rose 12 miles above sea level, closing airports, offices and schools.
ANC was closed for 20 hours, said Sean Nolan, CEO of NorthLink Aviation, which runs the airport’s 120-acre South Park Campus, from developing critical infrastructure to providing refuelling, de-icing and warehousing services.
The volcano is located about 80 miles west of Anchorage. Weather service providers used by Atlas Air have developed models based on wind patterns which show that prevailing winds typically move from west to east, which would affect ANC, reported Debbie Coffey, the airline’s VP and chief communications officer.
“However, there is also a possibility of ash dispersing northward causing much lower impact on Anchorage,” she added.
While an eruption is not a given, the airport and its users are closely following developments at Mount Spurr in communication with the AVO. ANC reminded all tenants and users of safety procedures and best practices to make sure everybody is prepared for the event.
“While we are not experiencing any impacts, we are monitoring the volcanic activity and are ready to implement contingency plans if needed,” a spokesman for FedEx said.
Likewise, Atlas Air keeps monitoring the situation and constantly updates clients on developments. The airline has experience dealing with past volcanic activity in the region, including the 1992 eruption of Mount Spurr, Ms Coffey noted.
Atlas is one of the biggest users of ANC. On average, it runs 27 flights a day through the airport and has scheduled 195 flights over the coming seven days. A large portion of those flights are headed east, and for the majority of them the time on the ground is a tech stop for refuelling and servicing
For the most part, airlines do not pick up freight or transfer pallets between flights at ANC, Mr Dolan noted. The majority of the aircraft just refuel and de-ice before taking off again.
Still, a closure of the airport would be a headache for airlines, as alternative points for refuelling are “not great”, he remarked. “Anchorage is the perfect place for fuel.”
NorthLink has run software simulations which show a significant impact on payload capability if airlines overfly ANC and head straight to their destination. These showed that on a direct Shanghai-New York routing, the hit on payload may be as high as 40 tonnes, Mr Dolan said, adding that “to LAX it’s more like 20 tonnes”.
In the event of a large ash cloud forcing airlines to choose a longer flight path, US and Canadian airlines would have limited options, as they are barred from Russian airspace.
Nippon Cargo Airlines is evaluating its options.
“Our tentative plans now are to use Seattle for our stops instead of ANC, but obviously adding flight time,” said Shawn McWhorter, president NCA Americas. “Or we can overfly, but that comes with payload limitations. Those seem like the only options right now.”
Atlas Air follows developments at Mount Spurr to adjust its plans accordingly in order to ensure the safety of its personnel on the ground and in the air, and to maintain operational continuity. To ensure service reliability and minimal impact on payload capacity, it may explore alternative tech stop locations, Ms Coffey said.
“Our contingency planning will likely involve directing flights to destinations without stopping in Anchorage, and identifying alternate locations for technical stops. For example, a typical Chicago O’Hare to Hong Kong route may now stop in Korea instead of Anchorage,” she continued.
“We anticipate that we would use multiple alternate locations to minimise operational disruption and ensure the least impact on our network to ensure a high level of service quality for our customers,” she added.
