While this week’s announcement of a new 90-day window/reprieve on US-China reciprocal tariffs had carriers reaching for the champagne, industry analysts have warned the cheer may be short-lived.
Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen revealed during the company’s first-quarter earnings call this morning that the carrier had seen China-US bookings surge since the weekend.
“On the back of the preliminary tariff agreement that was closed over the weekend, we saw a surge in volume over the last couple of days,” he told analysts.
“Bookings this week are 50%-plus compared with last week because tariffs are down, but also because some cargo was buffered in China, and that now needs to move.
“Whether this is going to be a surge that’s going to take 60 or 90 days, or whether that’s going to last longer, I think it’s very difficult to predict at this point, but we don’t expect it to hold.
“It will also depend on the further talks between China and the US,” Mr Habben Jansen added.
With a 22-day average transit time from China to the US, most analysts agree that the short-term is likely to see spot freight rates rise, with the consequence of an early peak season.
“Q3 is traditionally the peak season for ocean container shipping, but that may arrive earlier if there is now a rush to import goods into the US from China,” said Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand.
However, he cautioned that with Chinese goods still subject to a 30% tariff during the 90-day period, there were still many shippers that would continue to find importing from China prohibitively expensive.
“The resurgence in demand may be slower for some low-margin goods, due to the tariffs still in place,” he said. “So there will still be an adverse impact on ocean container shipping demand.
“It may also take shippers a little time to ramp up sourcing and manufacturing in China again, if they took their foot off the gas following the 145% tariffs announced on 9 April,” he explained.
However, Freightos head analyst Judah Levine noted: “This 30% minimum tariff on Chinese goods is higher than the highest tariffs applied to a more limited list of goods during the first Trump administration.
“But National Retail Federation US ocean import data shows that, even when subject to a minimum of 20% tariffs on Chinese goods in March, US importers continued to front-load inventory ahead of the prospect of even higher tariffs, with volumes in March and April 11% higher than in 2024,” he said.
“If demand does pick up sharply, shippers may face a period of tight capacity and some equipment shortages, as vessels and containers are moved back into place. [It]would also mean a big bump in the number of vessels and container volumes arriving at US ports in a few weeks.
“Taken together, shippers could face increased container rates and some congestion and delays in the next few weeks at both origins and US destinations,” he explained.
Notwithstanding a boost to short-term demand, both analysts predicted that the spot freight weaknesses seen in recent months on the transpacific were likely to return, largely due to the huge amount of unpredictability President Trump has cast over trade.
“With rates already more than 30% lower than a year ago, due to fleet growth and increased competition between the new carrier alliances – and with a lot of demand already satisfied through front-loading to date – peak season rates may not climb as high as last year’s peak highs,” Mr Levine added.
“In the longer term, it is likely freight rates will continue the downward trend seen in the market during Q1 prior to the ‘Liberation Day’ announcement by Trump,” Mr Sand said, but added that he did not expect shippers simply to return to business as usual.
“There will be relief over the easing of tariffs, but shippers cannot carry on as if nothing has happened, because if we have learned anything in the past few months, it is to expect the unexpected and further volatility – the geopolitical risk on supply chains is ever present.
“Businesses do not want to be under the thumb of geo-politics any longer and will accelerate plans for diversification in supply chains so they are able to react much quicker and more decisively against future threats,” he said.
