India’s merchandise exports bounced back in October, growing at double digits by 17.3 per cent to $39.2 billion, while merchandise imports increased by 3.9 per cent to $66.34 billion, leading to a widening trade deficit of $27.1 billion.
Exports stood at $34.58 billion in September, while imports were at $55.36 billion during the month.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised downwards its projection of world merchandise trade growth to 3 per cent in 2025, from its earlier estimate of 3.3 per cent.
For 2024, the WTO revised upwards its forecast for merchandise trade growth to 2.7 per cent, up slightly from the previous estimate of 2.6 per cent.
However, the multilateral trade body said that risks to the forecast remain firmly on the downside due to regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions, and policy uncertainty.
In the event of an escalation of the conflict in West Asia, the effects would also be felt in other regions, including through further disruptions to shipping and rising energy prices due to higher risk premiums.
“While the disruptive impact of the Red Sea crisis has been contained to date, other routes could be impacted in a wider conflict. There would also be a heightened risk of energy supply disruptions, given the region’s prominent role in petroleum production. Higher energy prices would dampen economic growth in importing economies and weigh on trade indirectly,” it said.
The first half of 2024 saw a 2.3 per cent year-on-year increase. The rebound came against the backdrop of a slump in 2023 – of 1.1 per cent – driven by high inflation and rising interest rates.