Air and sea tradelanes could see a significant shift: President Trump’s tariffs on Mexican products could revolutionise the global perishables trade if US consumers reject higher prices.
Target CEO Brian Cornell said yesterday: “We know for certain that categories, like fruits and vegetables, where during this winter season we depend on Mexico for a significant amount of supply, are categories where we’ll try to protect pricing, but the consumer will likely see price increases over the next couple of days.
“Those are really short supply chains. Think about all the fresh produce. We depend on Mexico during the winter. We’re going to try to make sure we can do everything we can to protect pricing, but if there’s a 25% tariff, those prices will go up.”
Players in the global avocado market have particularly expressed concern. The Avocado Exporters’ Association of Kenya said the 25% tariff on Mexico had “triggered a significant change in the dynamics of the global avocado market”.
“Mexico is now redirecting its entire production, totalling approximately 1.3m tons annually, toward the European market,” it said.
Europe buys some 800,000 tons of avocadoes between May and September; Mexico exports 500,000 to 600,000 tons.
“This influx creates a highly competitive environment, especially for Kenyan exporters who typically send only 70,000–100,000 tons to Europe during the same period,” noted the association.
“Historically, market oversupply has led to significant price drops, as seen when Peru’s seasonal shipments once pushed prices down to around €0.75 to €1 per kg. With Mexico’s larger volumes and lower shipping costs, prices could fall even further, to an estimated €0.50–€0.75, well below break-even levels (of around €1.50–€2 per kg) for Kenyan producers.
“The consequences are clear: Kenyan growers could be forced to sell at a loss, pivot to less-lucrative markets with higher logistical challenges, or face the risk of unsold, perishable stock.
“Furthermore, unlike the seasonal pattern of Peru’s exports, which typically exit the European market by October, Mexico’s continuous supply means no respite during Europe’s peak season. This scenario underscores the risks and uncertainties faced by agricultural exporters in a rapidly shifting trade landscape.”
African exporters have already been “seriously affected” by the Red Sea crisis, with ocean transit times of up to more than 40 days. From Mexican ports to Rotterdam, they average 18 to 25 days.
“While it is technically possible to ship avocados by sea with a transit time of over 40 days, it requires advanced logistics, strict temperature control, and specialised storage conditions to maintain quality. However, the risks of spoilage and quality degradation are high,” noted Kenya-based consultant Francis Mweu.
African perishables exporters have struggled to source affordable air cargo capacity; now they fear losing even more ground in the European market.
