India has the potential to raise its merchandise exports to Russia from about $5 billion to nearly $35 billion by 2030, according to a new report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). The assessment comes as President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Delhi brings renewed attention to the need for rebalancing the skewed bilateral trade relationship.
Despite bilateral trade nearing $70 billion, India’s exports to Russia remain below $5 billion, while imports are overwhelmingly dominated by crude oil. In FY2025, India exported goods worth $4.9 billion but imported $63.8 billion, resulting in a massive trade deficit of $58.9 billion. Crude oil alone accounted for $50.3 billion of the imports.
The GTRI report highlights that India currently supplies only 2.4 per cent of Russia’s $202.6 billion import market — a share far below its potential. Russia is a major global buyer in several sectors where India is also a leading exporter, yet New Delhi’s presence in the Russian market remains minimal.
Huge Opportunities Across Sectors
Food and agriculture present some of the largest gaps. Russia imported $13 billion worth of food items in 2024, but India’s exports of fruits, oils, meat and dairy together totalled under $250 million. Even in categories where India is globally competitive — such as meat, oilseeds, fruits and processed foods — its market share in Russia mostly stays below five per cent.
Similar trends are evident in chemicals and consumer goods. Russia’s imports of perfumery and essential oils stood at $3.13 billion and soaps and detergents at $1.07 billion, yet India’s contribution remained below 3–4 per cent.
Pharmaceuticals, India’s biggest export to Russia, also reveal underperformance. Russia imported $11.8 billion worth of medicines in 2024, while India’s exports were just $413.5 million, despite its strong global pharma footprint.
Textiles, apparel, footwear, vehicles, furniture and toys—all sectors where India has significant export capability—continue to show very low penetration in the Russian market.
Payment System the Key Bottleneck
The report emphasises solving payment challenges as a critical step to boosting exports. With Russian banks restricted from accessing SWIFT, Indian exporters face frequent delays and uncertainty in receiving payments.
The GTRI suggests establishing a modern, reliable rupee–rouble settlement system, reminiscent of the fixed exchange arrangement used during the Soviet era. Such a mechanism, backed by banks on both sides, could improve confidence and streamline trade flows.
A Path to More Balanced Trade
With the right financial architecture, trade missions and stronger institutional mechanisms, the report says India can diversify its currently energy-heavy trade basket. By doing so, India could significantly increase the presence of its goods in Russian stores, manufacturing lines and supply chains — helping narrow the trade gap and unlock a potential export surge by 2030.
